Tomato Market

The global tomato market is projected to continue growing over the next eight years, driven by increasing demand worldwide. Market performance is estimated to accelerate with a forecasted CAGR of +2.2% in consumption volume and +3.9% in market value from 2022 to 2030. China leads in both consumption and production of tomatoes, while Mexico emerges as a major exporter. The article provides detailed insights into consumption, production, imports, and exports trends, highlighting key countries and growth rates over the past decade.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for tomatoes worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 221M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $288.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Tomatoes

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was decline in consumption of tomatoes, when its volume decreased by -1.8% to 186M tons. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at 189M tons in 2021, and then fell modestly in the following year.

The global tomato market revenue contracted modestly to $211.4B in 2022, shrinking by -4.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $222.1B, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

China (68M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of tomato consumption, accounting for 37% of total volume. Moreover, tomato consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (21M tons), threefold. Turkey (12M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 6.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China stood at +3.6%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+1.1% per year) and Turkey (+1.5% per year).

In value terms, China ($73.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($18.9B). It was followed by Italy.

In China, the tomato market increased at an average annual rate of +10.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: the United States (-2.0% per year) and Italy (+3.0% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of tomato per capita consumption in 2022 were Turkey (146 kg per person), Italy (105 kg per person) and Spain (68 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Nigeria (with a CAGR of +3.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Tomatoes

After two years of growth, production of tomatoes decreased by -1.6% to 187M tons in 2022. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 5.7%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume at 190M tons in 2021, and then shrank slightly in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a slight expansion of the harvested area and a mild increase in yield figures.

In value terms, tomato production shrank to $219.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the production volume increased by 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $236.6B in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

Production By Country

China (68M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of tomato production, comprising approx. 37% of total volume. Moreover, tomato production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (21M tons), threefold. Turkey (13M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 7% share.

In China, tomato production expanded at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+1.0% per year) and Turkey (+1.4% per year).

Yield

The global average tomato yield was estimated at 38 tons per ha in 2022, remaining constant against the previous year's figure. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the yield increased by 4%. Over the period under review, the average tomato yield reached the maximum level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the total area harvested in terms of tomatoes production worldwide declined slightly to 4.9M ha, shrinking by -2.7% compared with the year before. In general, the harvested area, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the harvested area increased by 2.3%. The global harvested area peaked at 5.1M ha in 2021, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

Imports

World Imports of Tomatoes

In 2022, after four years of growth, there was significant decline in purchases abroad of tomatoes, when their volume decreased by -19.8% to 6.5M tons. In general, imports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of 6.4%. Global imports peaked at 8.1M tons in 2021, and then contracted rapidly in the following year.

In value terms, tomato imports reduced to $8.9B in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when imports increased by 7.1%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at $10.4B in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (1M tons), followed by Germany (655K tons), France (569K tons), the UK (385K tons), Iraq (372K tons), Pakistan (323K tons) and Russia (308K tons) were the main importers of tomatoes, together comprising 57% of total imports. The Netherlands (257K tons), Canada (198K tons), Spain (186K tons), Poland (181K tons), Italy (145K tons) and Afghanistan (116K tons) held a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Afghanistan (with a CAGR of +28.3%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($1.6B), the United States ($1.4B) and France ($957M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 44% share of global imports. The UK, the Netherlands, Russia, Poland, Canada, Spain, Italy, Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

Afghanistan, with a CAGR of +27.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average tomato import price amounted to $1,373 per ton, surging by 6.7% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.4%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average import price increased by 8.2% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($2,398 per ton), while Pakistan ($169 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+5.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Tomatoes

In 2022, after four years of growth, there was significant decline in overseas shipments of tomatoes, when their volume decreased by -12.4% to 7.5M tons. In general, exports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 6.2% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 8.5M tons in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

In value terms, tomato exports reduced to $10.6B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 9.6%. The global exports peaked at $11B in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Mexico (2M tons), distantly followed by the Netherlands (909K tons), Morocco (741K tons), Spain (635K tons) and Turkey (506K tons) represented the major exporters of tomatoes, together comprising 64% of total exports. The following exporters - France (325K tons), China (249K tons), Belgium (210K tons), the United States (192K tons), Canada (191K tons), Portugal (156K tons), Azerbaijan (142K tons) and Iran (127K tons) - together made up 21% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to tomato exports from Mexico stood at +2.9%. At the same time, Azerbaijan (+14.8%), Morocco (+5.3%), Portugal (+4.7%), France (+3.8%), China (+3.5%) and Canada (+2.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Azerbaijan emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +14.8% from 2012-2022. Belgium experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Turkey (-1.0%), the United States (-1.0%), the Netherlands (-1.3%), Spain (-3.4%) and Iran (-6.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Mexico (+5.7 p.p.) and Morocco (+3.7 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Iran, the Netherlands and Spain saw its share reduced by -1.9%, -2.3% and -4.1% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Mexico ($2.7B), the Netherlands ($1.8B) and Spain ($1.2B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 54% share of global exports. Morocco, France, Canada, Turkey, China, Belgium, the United States, Azerbaijan, Portugal and Iran lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 35%.

Among the main exporting countries, Azerbaijan, with a CAGR of +24.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average tomato export price stood at $1,421 per ton in 2022, increasing by 9.8% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.3%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average export price increased by 11% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($2,462 per ton), while Iran ($419 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+11.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform