Whey Market

The whey market is expected to experience a downward consumption trend over the next eight years, with a projected decrease in volume and value. Despite a recent growth in consumption, the market performance is forecast to slightly decrease by 2030. The global market saw notable fluctuations in consumption and production levels, with countries like Italy, Germany, and Denmark leading in both consumption and production. Whey imports and exports also experienced fluctuations, with some countries like the United States, Germany, and France dominating the export market. Overall, the whey market is expected to see continued growth in the immediate term despite fluctuations in consumption, production, and trade.

Market Forecast

The whey market is expected to start a downward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to decrease slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of -0.1% for the eight-year period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to depress the market volume to 20M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $11.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Whey

For the fourth consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in consumption of whey, which increased by 33% to 20M tons in 2022. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

The global whey market revenue soared to $10.3B in 2022, surging by 31% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated a notable increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +85.4% against 2016 indices. As a result, consumption reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Italy (8.1M tons), Germany (4.4M tons) and Denmark (1.9M tons), with a combined 73% share of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Denmark (with a CAGR of +24.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Denmark ($2.2B), Germany ($1.6B) and China ($936M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 46% of the global market.

Denmark, with a CAGR of +25.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of whey per capita consumption was registered in Denmark (319 kg per person), followed by Italy (137 kg per person), Germany (53 kg per person) and the Netherlands (47 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of whey was estimated at 2.5 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the whey per capita consumption in Denmark amounted to +24.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Italy (+8.0% per year) and Germany (+0.7% per year).

Production

World Production of Whey

Global whey production soared to 20M tons in 2022, picking up by 33% on 2021 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, production reached the peak volume and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, whey production reduced markedly to $7.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 42% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $8.7B, and then contracted notably in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Italy (8.2M tons), Germany (4.4M tons) and Denmark (1.8M tons), together accounting for 74% of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Denmark (with a CAGR of +24.5%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Whey

In 2022, supplies from abroad of whey decreased by -1.5% to 3.7M tons for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year rising trend. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when imports increased by 11%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 3.8M tons in 2021, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

In value terms, whey imports expanded remarkably to $4.5B in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a modest increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +30.0% against 2017 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 27%. Global imports peaked at $4.7B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of whey imports in 2022 were the Netherlands (710K tons), China (599K tons) and Germany (518K tons), together accounting for 49% of total import. It was distantly followed by France (199K tons), comprising a 5.4% share of total imports. Indonesia (133K tons), Denmark (114K tons), Malaysia (90K tons), Italy (89K tons), Poland (76K tons), Slovakia (70K tons), Belgium (68K tons), the Philippines (68K tons) and Thailand (66K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Slovakia (with a CAGR of +33.7%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest whey importing markets worldwide were China ($938M), the Netherlands ($618M) and Germany ($276M), with a combined 41% share of global imports. Indonesia, France, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Denmark, Belgium, Italy, Poland and Slovakia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

Slovakia, with a CAGR of +11.5%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average whey import price amounted to $1,211 per ton, with an increase of 8.4% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 an increase of 19%. Global import price peaked at $1,289 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Indonesia ($1,766 per ton), while Slovakia ($168 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+3.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Whey

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in shipments abroad of whey, when their volume decreased by -6.2% to 3.4M tons. In general, exports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 with an increase of 8.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 3.7M tons in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

In value terms, whey exports expanded significantly to $4.4B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated modest growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +33.7% against 2017 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 27%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

The United States (615K tons) and Germany (444K tons) represented the major exporters of whey in 2022, recording approx. 18% and 13% of total exports, respectively. France (264K tons) took the next position in the ranking, followed by the Netherlands (263K tons), Italy (216K tons), Poland (204K tons) and Belgium (164K tons). All these countries together held approx. 32% share of total exports. Ireland (135K tons), Austria (124K tons), Denmark (84K tons), Latvia (78K tons), Canada (70K tons) and Belarus (69K tons) held a little share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Latvia (with a CAGR of +27.4%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($822M), Germany ($647M) and France ($483M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 44% share of global exports. The Netherlands, Ireland, Italy, Poland, Austria, Denmark, Belarus, Canada, Belgium and Latvia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 36%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Latvia, with a CAGR of +9.5%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average whey export price amounted to $1,291 per ton, growing by 16% against the previous year. Overall, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the average export price increased by 20%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum at $1,300 per ton in 2014; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Ireland ($2,042 per ton), while Latvia ($271 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+10.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform