Watermelon Market

The global watermelon market is predicted to see an increase in both consumption and production trends over the next eight years. Despite a decline in both consumption and production in 2022, the overall market performance is expected to accelerate with a forecasted CAGR of +1.5% for consumption and +6.3% for production from 2022 to 2030. China remains the largest consumer and producer of watermelons, with other key players like Turkey, India, and the United States also making significant contributions. The global trade of watermelons is also on the rise, with key exporters like Spain, Morocco, and Mexico leading the way. Overall, the market is showing positive growth potential, with export prices and import volumes expected to continue increasing in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for watermelons worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 113M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $84.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Watermelons

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was decline in consumption of watermelons, when its volume decreased by -1.5% to 100M tons. In general, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at 103M tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global watermelon market value reduced to $65.7B in 2022, declining by -3.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $67.8B in 2021, and then dropped slightly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of watermelon consumption was China (60M tons), comprising approx. 60% of total volume. Moreover, watermelon consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Turkey (3.3M tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was held by India (3.3M tons), with a 3.3% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China was relatively modest. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Turkey (-1.9% per year) and India (+6.7% per year).

In value terms, China ($46.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Algeria ($1.6B). It was followed by the United States.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China stood at +5.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Algeria (+4.0% per year) and the United States (+0.8% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of watermelon per capita consumption in 2022 were Algeria (45 kg per person), China (43 kg per person) and Turkey (39 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Pakistan (with a CAGR of +12.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Watermelons

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was decline in production of watermelons, when its volume decreased by -1.3% to 100M tons. Overall, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 2.2%. Global production peaked at 103M tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a mild increase in yield figures.

In value terms, watermelon production declined to $71.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +4.6% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 44%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $74.8B in 2021, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of watermelon production was China (60M tons), comprising approx. 60% of total volume. Moreover, watermelon production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Turkey (3.4M tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was held by India (3.3M tons), with a 3.3% share.

In China, watermelon production remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Turkey (-1.7% per year) and India (+6.7% per year).

Yield

In 2022, the global average watermelon yield fell to 34 tons per ha, almost unchanged from the year before. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when the yield increased by 2.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average watermelon yield hit record highs at 34 tons per ha in 2021, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

Harvested Area

The global watermelon harvested area shrank to 2.9M ha in 2022, almost unchanged from the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, the harvested area recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 0.8% against the previous year. As a result, the harvested area attained the peak level of 3.2M ha. From 2017 to 2022, the growth of the global watermelon harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Imports

World Imports of Watermelons

In 2022, approx. 3.7M tons of watermelons were imported worldwide; which is down by -19.4% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 4.6M tons in 2021, and then shrank notably in the following year.

In value terms, watermelon imports rose modestly to $2.2B in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a buoyant expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +81.2% against 2012 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 19%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (801K tons), distantly followed by Germany (414K tons), France (259K tons), Canada (217K tons), the Netherlands (177K tons) and Poland (166K tons) represented the largest importers of watermelons, together committing 55% of total imports. The UK (162K tons), Spain (147K tons), Russia (80K tons), the Czech Republic (73K tons), China (68K tons) and Turkey (57K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +28.2%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($393M), Germany ($333M) and France ($217M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 43% of global imports. The Netherlands, the UK, Canada, Spain, Poland, the Czech Republic, Russia, Turkey and China lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

Spain, with a CAGR of +24.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average watermelon import price stood at $604 per ton in 2022, rising by 27% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.7%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was France ($836 per ton), while China ($130 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Czech Republic (+4.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Watermelons

In 2022, after five years of growth, there was significant decline in shipments abroad of watermelons, when their volume decreased by -14.8% to 4M tons. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when exports increased by 29% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 4.6M tons in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

In value terms, watermelon exports contracted modestly to $2.1B in 2022. Overall, total exports indicated a buoyant increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +81.0% against 2012 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when exports increased by 30% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $2.1B in 2021, and then fell modestly in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Spain (684K tons), distantly followed by Mexico (400K tons), Iran (385K tons), Morocco (297K tons), Italy (261K tons), the United States (213K tons) and Greece (192K tons) were the key exporters of watermelons, together committing 61% of total exports. Guatemala (147K tons), Turkey (146K tons), the Netherlands (129K tons), Lao People's Democratic Republic (118K tons), Brazil (106K tons) and Myanmar (85K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Lao People's Democratic Republic (with a CAGR of +70.4%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Spain ($537M) remains the largest watermelon supplier worldwide, comprising 25% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Morocco ($202M), with a 9.5% share of global exports. It was followed by Mexico, with a 9.5% share.

In Spain, watermelon exports increased at an average annual rate of +7.2% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Morocco (+39.5% per year) and Mexico (-2.9% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average watermelon export price stood at $538 per ton in 2022, growing by 17% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.2%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 an increase of 20% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($1,022 per ton), while Iran ($138 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Guatemala (+4.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform