Maize Market

The article discusses the increasing demand for maize (green) worldwide and projects a positive trend in market performance over the next eight years. From 2022 to 2030, the market volume is expected to reach 15M tons with a CAGR of +1.7%, while the market value is forecasted to rise to $29B by the end of 2030 with a CAGR of +3.5%. The United States leads in both consumption and production of maize, while countries like Croatia, Peru, Mexico, and China also play significant roles in the global market. The average maize yield and harvested area have seen fluctuations, impacting production and export prices. Overall, the maize market is expected to continue growing in the near future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for maize (green) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 15M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $29B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Maize (Green)

In 2022, global consumption of maize (green) stood at 13M tons, approximately reflecting the year before. Over the period under review, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at 13M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global maize market value reduced slightly to $22.1B in 2022, standing approx. at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 7.1%. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $23.5B. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the global market failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The United States (2.9M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of maize consumption, comprising approx. 23% of total volume. Moreover, maize consumption in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Indonesia (866K tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by Nigeria (781K tons), with a 6.1% share.

In the United States, maize consumption contracted by an average annual rate of -3.4% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Indonesia (+6.0% per year) and Nigeria (+0.2% per year).

In value terms, the largest maize markets worldwide were the United States ($3.8B), Croatia ($2.1B) and Peru ($1.6B), together accounting for 34% of the global market. Mexico, France, Indonesia, Nigeria, Greece, Thailand, South Africa, Guinea, Hungary and China lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 31%.

China, with a CAGR of +30.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of maize per capita consumption was registered in Croatia (192 kg per person), followed by Greece (71 kg per person), Hungary (55 kg per person) and Guinea (22 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of maize was estimated at 1.6 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the maize per capita consumption in Croatia was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Greece (+6.2% per year) and Hungary (+2.3% per year).

Production

World Production of Maize (Green)

In 2022, the amount of maize (green) produced worldwide was estimated at 13M tons, leveling off at the year before. Overall, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when the production volume increased by 7.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 13M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, maize production totaled $23B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 26%. Global production peaked at $25.4B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of maize production was the United States (2.6M tons), accounting for 20% of total volume. Moreover, maize production in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Mexico (1.1M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Indonesia (869K tons), with a 6.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in the United States amounted to -4.1%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Mexico (+3.9% per year) and Indonesia (+6.0% per year).

Yield

The global average maize yield shrank modestly to 11 tons per ha in 2022, reducing by -3% against the year before. In general, the yield, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when the yield increased by 9.9% against the previous year. As a result, the yield attained the peak level of 12 tons per ha. From 2016 to 2022, the growth of the average maize yield failed to regain momentum.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the total area harvested in terms of maize (green) production worldwide expanded to 1.2M ha, increasing by 3.7% on the previous year. In general, the harvested area recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 4.4%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to maize production reached the maximum at 1.2M ha in 2018; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Imports

World Imports of Maize (Green)

In 2022, the amount of maize (green) imported worldwide contracted slightly to 2.1M tons, waning by -3.9% against the previous year's figure. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by 14%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at 2.2M tons in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

In value terms, maize imports contracted slightly to $3.4B in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated resilient growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +83.9% against 2012 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 14%. As a result, imports reached the peak of $3.5B, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (433K tons), distantly followed by Hong Kong SAR (220K tons), the Netherlands (167K tons), France (154K tons), Germany (137K tons), Canada (107K tons) and the UK (107K tons) represented the largest importers of maize (green), together comprising 63% of total imports. Singapore (66K tons), Belgium (64K tons), Austria (38K tons), Poland (33K tons), Russia (32K tons) and Nepal (32K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Nepal (with a CAGR of +37.2%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest maize importing markets worldwide were the United States ($371M), Germany ($371M) and Hong Kong SAR ($363M), with a combined 32% share of global imports. The Netherlands, France, the UK, Canada, Belgium, Austria, Singapore, Poland, Russia and Nepal lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 42%.

Among the main importing countries, Nepal, with a CAGR of +34.3%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average maize import price stood at $1,646 per ton in 2022, surging by 2.8% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.0%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 an increase of 8.8%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($2,700 per ton), while Nepal ($140 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Hong Kong SAR (+18.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Maize (Green)

In 2022, global maize exports fell modestly to 2M tons, declining by -4.6% against 2021 figures. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when exports increased by 33%. The global exports peaked at 2.1M tons in 2021, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

In value terms, maize exports reached $3.3B in 2022. In general, total exports indicated buoyant growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +98.5% against 2012 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when exports increased by 24%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Mexico (385K tons), China (258K tons), Italy (184K tons), the Netherlands (147K tons), the United States (133K tons), Spain (121K tons) and India (114K tons) represented roughly 66% of total exports in 2022. France (72K tons), Thailand (50K tons), Poland (46K tons), Belgium (33K tons), Ethiopia (32K tons) and Uzbekistan (32K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Ethiopia (with a CAGR of +59.7%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Italy ($485M), the Netherlands ($472M) and China ($362M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 41% share of global exports. Mexico, Ethiopia, the United States, Spain, France, India, Thailand, Belgium, Poland and Uzbekistan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

Among the main exporting countries, Ethiopia, with a CAGR of +82.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average maize export price amounted to $1,597 per ton, growing by 4.9% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.9%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the average export price increased by 18%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Ethiopia ($7,299 per ton), while Poland ($602 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+15.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform