Whisky Market

The global whisky market is forecast to experience steady growth in both consumption volume and market value from 2022 to 2030, with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% and +5.7%, respectively. China leads in whisky consumption volume, while the United States, Japan, and China are top countries in market value. Production and exports have also seen growth in recent years, with the UK being the main exporter of whisky. Average prices vary by country, with Singapore having the highest export price and India the lowest.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for whisky worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.1B litres by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $44.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Whisky

Global whisky consumption stood at 3.1B litres in 2022, with an increase of 4.2% compared with the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

The global whisky market value was estimated at $28.5B in 2022, growing by 5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

China (726M litres) constituted the country with the largest volume of whisky consumption, accounting for 23% of total volume. Moreover, whisky consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (313M litres), twofold. The United States (242M litres) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 7.8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China stood at +5.0%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+6.4% per year) and the United States (+1.2% per year).

In value terms, China ($7B), Japan ($3.7B) and the United States ($2B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 45% of the global market. Indonesia, India, France, Spain, Iran, the UK, Germany, the United Arab Emirates, Poland and Brazil lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 20%.

Among the main consuming countries, Poland, with a CAGR of +12.5%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of whisky per capita consumption was registered in the United Arab Emirates (5.1 litres per person), followed by France (1.6 litres per person), Poland (1.4 litres per person) and the UK (1.4 litres per person), while the world average per capita consumption of whisky was estimated at 0.4 litres per person.

In the United Arab Emirates, whisky per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +9.9% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: France (-2.5% per year) and Poland (+12.5% per year).

Production

World Production of Whisky

In 2022, production of whisky increased by 6.8% to 3.1B litres, rising for the second year in a row after three years of decline. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when the production volume increased by 17%. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak volume in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, whisky production amounted to $24.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 18%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum level in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the UK (1.1B litres), China (697M litres) and India (307M litres), together accounting for 67% of global production. The United States, Ireland, Indonesia, Japan and Iran lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 20%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Ireland (with a CAGR of +8.5%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Whisky

Global whisky imports expanded markedly to 1.8B litres in 2022, with an increase of 13% against 2021. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure at 1.9B litres in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, whisky imports soared to $13.8B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (234M litres), followed by France (147M litres), the Netherlands (88M litres) and Germany (82M litres) were the main importers of whisky, together creating 31% of total imports. Spain (72M litres), Japan (71M litres), Brazil (68M litres), India (66M litres), the United Arab Emirates (63M litres), Poland (55M litres), Russia (46M litres), Australia (45M litres) and the UK (36M litres) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +20.5%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($2B) constitutes the largest market for imported whisky worldwide, comprising 14% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by France ($896M), with a 6.5% share of global imports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 4.9% share.

In the United States, whisky imports increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: France (+0.3% per year) and the Netherlands (+8.9% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average whisky import price amounted to $7.7 per litre, growing by 5.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the average import price increased by 7.5%. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure at $8.1 per litre in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Australia ($9 per litre), while Brazil ($3 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Australia (+7.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Whisky

In 2022, overseas shipments of whisky increased by 19% to 1.8B litres, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. Overall, exports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at 1.9B litres in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, whisky exports soared to $15B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 21%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

In 2022, the UK (1B litres) represented the main exporter of whisky, comprising 57% of total exports. It was distantly followed by the United States (200M litres) and Ireland (133M litres), together constituting an 18% share of total exports. The following exporters - India (60M litres), France (52M litres), the Netherlands (47M litres), Germany (31M litres), Singapore (29M litres) and Canada (28M litres) - together made up 14% of total exports.

Exports from the UK increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Ireland (+8.3%), India (+7.2%), the Netherlands (+6.4%) and France (+5.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Ireland emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +8.3% from 2012-2022. Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Singapore (-4.5%), the United States (-7.9%) and Canada (-14.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of the UK (+12 p.p.), Ireland (+4 p.p.) and India (+1.6 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Canada (-5.4 p.p.) and the United States (-14.4 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the UK ($7.8B) remains the largest whisky supplier worldwide, comprising 52% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($1.4B), with a 9.5% share of global exports. It was followed by Ireland, with a 6.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in the UK amounted to +1.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+1.6% per year) and Ireland (+11.3% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average whisky export price stood at $8.3 per litre in 2022, growing by 1.6% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.4%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 an increase of 27%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Singapore ($29 per litre), while India ($2 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+15.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform