Vanilla Market

The global vanilla market is expected to grow steadily over the period from 2022 to 2030, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% in volume and +3.3% in value. In 2022, global vanilla consumption reached 9.4K tons, with the market value expanding rapidly to $1B. The countries with the highest consumption and production volumes are Indonesia, the United States, Madagascar, and Mexico. The United States and Madagascar are key importers and exporters of vanilla, with Madagascar being the largest supplier globally. Average vanilla prices have shown fluctuating growth patterns, with Madagascar having the highest export price. Overall, the global vanilla market is showing positive growth trends in consumption, production, import, and export.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for vanilla worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 11K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $1.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Vanilla

In 2022, global vanilla consumption expanded notably to 9.4K tons, growing by 12% against 2021. In general, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 9.7K tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global vanilla market value expanded rapidly to $1B in 2022, increasing by 14% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated a moderate expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +26.8% against 2020 indices. Over the period under review, the global market reached the peak level in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Indonesia (2.8K tons), the United States (1.6K tons) and France (785 tons), with a combined 56% share of global consumption. Mexico, China, the UK, Germany, Syrian Arab Republic and the Dominican Republic lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 22%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Syrian Arab Republic (with a CAGR of +41.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Indonesia ($418M), the United States ($258M) and France ($121M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together comprising 77% of the global market. Germany, Mexico, the UK, Syrian Arab Republic, China and the Dominican Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 7.9%.

Syrian Arab Republic, with a CAGR of +63.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of vanilla per capita consumption in 2022 were the Dominican Republic (20 kg per 1000 persons), Syrian Arab Republic (14 kg per 1000 persons) and France (12 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Syrian Arab Republic (with a CAGR of +41.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Vanilla

In 2022, global production of vanilla was estimated at 8K tons, standing approx. at 2021 figures. In general, production, however, saw a mild decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 5.9%. Global production peaked at 9.5K tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. The general negative trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a slight shrinkage of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, vanilla production contracted to $974M in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production enjoyed a measured increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 38% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $1.4B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Madagascar (2.6K tons), Indonesia (2.3K tons) and Mexico (583 tons), with a combined 68% share of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Mexico (with a CAGR of +4.1%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Vanilla

In 2022, approx. 7.8K tons of vanilla were imported worldwide; surging by 14% against 2021 figures. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 15%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, vanilla imports rose to $954M in 2022. Overall, imports showed significant growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 66%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at $1.5B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (2K tons), distantly followed by France (1,234 tons), Indonesia (825 tons), Germany (510 tons), Canada (442 tons) and the UK (389 tons) were the key importers of vanilla, together committing 69% of total imports. The following importers - Syrian Arab Republic (276 tons), the Netherlands (219 tons), Belgium (166 tons), Spain (135 tons), Saudi Arabia (126 tons) and Denmark (120 tons) - together made up 13% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Syrian Arab Republic (with a CAGR of +41.7%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest vanilla importing markets worldwide were the United States ($344M), France ($236M) and Germany ($78M), with a combined 69% share of global imports. Canada, the Netherlands, Indonesia, Belgium, the UK, Denmark, Spain, Saudi Arabia and Syrian Arab Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 19%.

Among the main importing countries, Indonesia, with a CAGR of +47.7%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average vanilla import price stood at $122,587 per ton in 2022, declining by -8.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, showed a strong increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 an increase of 84% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $247,834 per ton in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($192,306 per ton), while Syrian Arab Republic ($2,708 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+27.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Vanilla

In 2022, shipments abroad of vanilla increased by 0.3% to 6.4K tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. Overall, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at 6.8K tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, vanilla exports declined to $925M in 2022. In general, exports saw a buoyant increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when exports increased by 90% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at $1.6B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

Madagascar was the major exporting country with an export of around 2.5K tons, which finished at 40% of total exports. It was distantly followed by France (449 tons), Papua New Guinea (394 tons), Turkey (387 tons), Canada (360 tons), the United States (343 tons) and Indonesia (313 tons), together mixing up a 35% share of total exports. The following exporters - the Netherlands (276 tons), Germany (231 tons), China (121 tons) and South Africa (101 tons) - together made up 11% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to vanilla exports from Madagascar stood at -3.7%. At the same time, the Netherlands (+22.2%), Papua New Guinea (+20.1%), the United States (+7.7%), South Africa (+7.0%), Turkey (+5.6%), China (+2.9%), Indonesia (+2.0%) and Canada (+1.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Netherlands emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +22.2% from 2012-2022. France experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Germany (-5.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Papua New Guinea (+5.2 p.p.), the Netherlands (+3.8 p.p.), the United States (+3 p.p.) and Turkey (+2.8 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Germany and Madagascar saw its share reduced by -2.6% and -14.6% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Madagascar ($556M) remains the largest vanilla supplier worldwide, comprising 60% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by France ($71M), with a 7.7% share of global exports. It was followed by Indonesia, with a 6.7% share.

In Madagascar, vanilla exports increased at an average annual rate of +20.5% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: France (+13.4% per year) and Indonesia (+26.2% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average vanilla export price stood at $144,961 per ton in 2022, with a decrease of -6.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, showed a resilient increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 an increase of 97% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure at $273,595 per ton in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Madagascar ($218,983 per ton), while Turkey ($2,765 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Madagascar (+25.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform