Toy Market

The global market for dolls and toys is predicted to experience steady growth in the upcoming years, driven by increasing demand worldwide. Consumption is expected to rise, with a forecasted increase in market volume to 13M tons and market value to $177.1B by 2030. The United States, China, and India are the top consumers, while China dominates toy production and exports. With an emphasis on growing imports and evolving trade patterns, the industry is poised for continued expansion.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for dolls and toys worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 13M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $177.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Dolls And Toys

In 2022, consumption of dolls and toys increased by 1.6% to 11M tons, rising for the eighth consecutive year after two years of decline. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

The global toy market size rose slightly to $125.4B in 2022, with an increase of 4.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total consumption indicated notable growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +55.8% against 2013 indices. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were the United States (2.4M tons), China (1.2M tons) and India (619K tons), with a combined 37% share of global consumption. Thailand, Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan, Japan, the UK, Nigeria, Mexico, Bangladesh and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Thailand (with a CAGR of +16.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($22.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by China ($10.4B). It was followed by India.

In the United States, the toy market expanded at an average annual rate of +7.8% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (+4.9% per year) and India (+5.6% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of toy per capita consumption in 2022 were the United States (7.1 kg per person), Thailand (5 kg per person) and the UK (3.4 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Thailand (with a CAGR of +16.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Dolls And Toys

Global toy production dropped to 10M tons in 2022, flattening at the year before. Overall, the total production indicated a moderate increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +1.3% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when the production volume increased by 34%. Global production peaked at 11M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, toy production totaled $111.3B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated a pronounced expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -2.0% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum level at $113.6B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of toy production was China (4.8M tons), accounting for 47% of total volume. Moreover, toy production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (625K tons), eightfold. Indonesia (319K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 3.1% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China stood at +4.8%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+5.7% per year) and Indonesia (+6.8% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Dolls And Toys

For the fourth consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in supplies from abroad of dolls and toys, which increased by less than 0.1% to 6.1M tons in 2022. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 18%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, toy imports expanded modestly to $62.2B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 25%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

The United States was the major importer of dolls and toys in the world, with the volume of imports accounting for 2.3M tons, which was approx. 38% of total imports in 2022. The following importers - Thailand (269K tons), Germany (263K tons), the UK (251K tons), the Netherlands (190K tons), France (186K tons), Russia (162K tons), Japan (151K tons), the Czech Republic (141K tons), Canada (122K tons), Poland (119K tons), Belgium (115K tons) and Spain (108K tons) - together made up 34% of total imports.

Imports into the United States increased at an average annual rate of +9.1% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Thailand (+47.3%), Poland (+10.4%), the Netherlands (+9.4%), Russia (+6.9%), the Czech Republic (+6.7%), Spain (+3.9%), Germany (+3.8%), Belgium (+3.6%), Japan (+1.8%), France (+1.6%) and Canada (+1.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Thailand emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +47.3% from 2012-2022. The UK experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. While the share of the United States (+16 p.p.) and Thailand (+4.3 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($20.3B) constitutes the largest market for imported dolls and toys worldwide, comprising 33% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Germany ($4.1B), with a 6.6% share of global imports. It was followed by the UK, with a 5.1% share.

In the United States, toy imports increased at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Germany (+4.8% per year) and the UK (+3.0% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average toy import price stood at $10,230 per ton in 2022, picking up by 3.5% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the average import price increased by 17% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $11,083 per ton in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($18,222 per ton), while Thailand ($426 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+2.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Dolls And Toys

Global toy exports declined modestly to 5.2M tons in 2022, shrinking by -4.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a moderate increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +12.3% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 47% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 5.5M tons in 2021, and then dropped modestly in the following year.

In value terms, toy exports rose modestly to $71.4B in 2022. Overall, exports, however, showed strong growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 30%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

China prevails in exports structure, accounting for 3.7M tons, which was approx. 70% of total exports in 2022. The Netherlands (198K tons), the Czech Republic (147K tons), Germany (139K tons), Vietnam (104K tons), Poland (89K tons) and Belgium (88K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from China increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Vietnam (+19.4%), Poland (+14.9%), the Netherlands (+14.0%), the Czech Republic (+5.7%), Belgium (+5.3%) and Germany (+2.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Vietnam emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +19.4% from 2012-2022. While the share of China (+11 p.p.), the Netherlands (+2.3 p.p.) and Vietnam (+1.5 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($48.4B) remains the largest toy supplier worldwide, comprising 68% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the Czech Republic ($3.2B), with a 4.5% share of global exports. It was followed by Germany, with a 3.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China amounted to +15.5%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the Czech Republic (+4.8% per year) and Germany (+3.2% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average toy export price amounted to $13,730 per ton, surging by 7.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, toy export price increased by +60.5% against 2015 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 an increase of 40%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Czech Republic ($21,801 per ton), while the Netherlands ($9,265 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+9.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform