Tall Oil Market

The global tall oil market is forecasted to show a slight increase in performance with anticipated growth in volume and value from 2022 to 2030. Consumption of tall oil is on the rise, with some fluctuations in trends observed across different countries. Production, imports, exports and prices have also experienced variations over the analyzed period. Key countries contributing to the market include China, the United States, Finland, India, and Sweden. Overall, the tall oil market is expected to continue its growth trajectory in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for tall oil worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 3.2M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $4.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Tall Oil

In 2022, consumption of tall oil increased by 1% to 3M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after eight years of decline. Over the period under review, consumption, however, continues to indicate a perceptible descent. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 1.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 4M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global tall oil market value expanded modestly to $3.9B in 2022, surging by 3.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, continues to indicate a perceptible descent. Global consumption peaked at $5.3B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (588K tons), the United States (433K tons) and Finland (384K tons), together accounting for 46% of global consumption. India, Sweden, Russia, Germany, Japan, France, Brazil, Mexico, Italy and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 30%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for France (with a CAGR of +10.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the consumption figures.

In value terms, the largest tall oil markets worldwide were China ($778M), India ($586M) and Finland ($368M), with a combined 45% share of the global market. The United States, the UK, Japan, Mexico, Italy, France, Sweden, Germany, Brazil and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

France, with a CAGR of +11.4%, saw the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the market figures.

In 2022, the highest levels of tall oil per capita consumption was registered in Finland (69 kg per person), followed by Sweden (12 kg per person), the United States (1.3 kg per person) and France (1.1 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of tall oil was estimated at 0.4 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the tall oil per capita consumption in Finland totaled +4.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Sweden (-6.6% per year) and the United States (-5.9% per year).

Production

World Production of Tall Oil

In 2022, production of tall oil increased by 0.2% to 3.2M tons, rising for the second year in a row after eight years of decline. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a perceptible decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 2%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 4.1M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, tall oil production totaled $3.9B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, showed a pronounced setback. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $5.3B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (682K tons), China (578K tons) and Finland (293K tons), together accounting for 48% of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Finland (with a CAGR of +3.0%), while production for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the production figures.

Imports

World Imports of Tall Oil

In 2022, the amount of tall oil imported worldwide contracted dramatically to 311K tons, reducing by -18% on the year before. Over the period under review, imports saw a pronounced contraction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 with an increase of 22% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 441K tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, tall oil imports reached $313M in 2022. In general, imports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 16%. Global imports peaked at $320M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Finland (133K tons) was the major importer of tall oil, mixing up 43% of total imports. It was distantly followed by France (49K tons), Japan (31K tons) and Austria (25K tons), together constituting a 34% share of total imports. The United States (13K tons), China (10K tons), the Netherlands (7.4K tons), Sweden (6.1K tons), Germany (5.4K tons) and Canada (5.3K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to tall oil imports into Finland stood at +3.6%. At the same time, France (+15.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, France emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +15.0% from 2012-2022. The Netherlands experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the United States (-1.4%), Austria (-1.5%), China (-2.6%), Germany (-3.4%), Canada (-5.4%), Japan (-6.4%) and Sweden (-22.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Finland (+19 p.p.) and France (+13 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of Japan (-5.6 p.p.) and Sweden (-17.2 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Finland ($101M), France ($54M) and Japan ($34M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together comprising 60% of global imports.

Among the main importing countries, France, with a CAGR of +18.0%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average tall oil import price stood at $1,008 per ton in 2022, increasing by 35% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a measured expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, tall oil import price increased by +80.0% against 2017 indices. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($2,069 per ton), while Finland ($763 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+8.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Tall Oil

In 2022, after three years of growth, there was significant decline in shipments abroad of tall oil, when their volume decreased by -16.4% to 479K tons. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 28%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 573K tons in 2021, and then contracted markedly in the following year.

In value terms, tall oil exports totaled $411M in 2022. In general, exports, however, recorded a tangible increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 23%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

The United States represented the largest exporting country with an export of about 262K tons, which accounted for 55% of total exports. Sweden (58K tons) took a 12% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Finland (8.6%) and Russia (8.3%). Poland (18K tons), Brazil (15K tons) and Germany (11K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

The United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of tall oil. At the same time, Brazil (+37.4%), Poland (+32.3%), Sweden (+13.7%) and Russia (+2.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Brazil emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +37.4% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Finland (-5.6%) and Germany (-7.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Sweden (+8.4 p.p.), Poland (+3.5 p.p.) and Brazil (+2.9 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while the United States, Germany and Finland saw its share reduced by -2.6%, -2.8% and -8% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($212M) remains the largest tall oil supplier worldwide, comprising 51% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Sweden ($57M), with a 14% share of global exports. It was followed by Finland, with an 11% share.

In the United States, tall oil exports increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Sweden (+10.0% per year) and Finland (-0.8% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average tall oil export price amounted to $859 per ton, surging by 25% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.1%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Finland ($1,061 per ton), while Russia ($595 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Finland (+5.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform