Synthetic Rubber Market

The global synthetic rubber market is projected to show steady growth over the next eight years, driven by increasing demand worldwide. Market performance is forecast to expand with a CAGR of +1.9% in volume and +3.1% in value from 2022 to 2030. In 2022, after a decline in consumption, there was growth in synthetic rubber consumption, with China leading as the largest consumer. Production and imports also showed fluctuations, with China being the major importer of synthetic rubber. The market is expected to continue growing in the immediate term.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for synthetic rubber worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 30M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $68.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Synthetic Rubber

In 2022, after two years of decline, there was growth in consumption of synthetic rubber, when its volume increased by 1.9% to 26M tons. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 6.5% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at 27M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global synthetic rubber market size was estimated at $54.1B in 2022, growing by 3.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, showed a mild setback. Global consumption peaked at $61.7B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (6.7M tons) remains the largest synthetic rubber consuming country worldwide, accounting for 26% of total volume. Moreover, synthetic rubber consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (3.2M tons), twofold. Japan (1.3M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 5.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +2.9%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (+2.0% per year) and Japan (+0.4% per year).

In value terms, the largest synthetic rubber markets worldwide were China ($13.2B), the United States ($8.1B) and Japan ($3.5B), with a combined 46% share of the global market. Germany, Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Italy, Brazil, India, Russia, Iran and Democratic Republic of the Congo lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 24%.

South Korea, with a CAGR of +5.6%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of synthetic rubber per capita consumption in 2022 were South Korea (21 kg per person), Japan (11 kg per person) and Italy (9.7 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for South Korea (with a CAGR of +10.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Synthetic Rubber

In 2022, production of synthetic rubber was finally on the rise to reach 25M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year declining trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when the production volume increased by 8.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 27M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, synthetic rubber production shrank modestly to $48.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a pronounced setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 14%. Global production peaked at $59.9B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (3.5M tons), China (2.7M tons) and South Korea (2.5M tons), together accounting for 34% of global production. Japan, Thailand, Russia, Vietnam, Germany, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Democratic Republic of the Congo lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Thailand (with a CAGR of +89.5%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Synthetic Rubber

In 2022, purchases abroad of synthetic rubber decreased by -4.9% to 14M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. In general, total imports indicated a noticeable increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 27% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at 15M tons in 2021, and then contracted slightly in the following year.

In value terms, synthetic rubber imports stood at $31.8B in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 37% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

China was the major importer of synthetic rubber in the world, with the volume of imports accounting for 4.7M tons, which was near 34% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by the United States (678K tons) and Malaysia (648K tons), together making up a 9.6% share of total imports. The following importers - Thailand (598K tons), India (535K tons), Belgium (525K tons), Germany (511K tons), Turkey (445K tons), Vietnam (442K tons), Indonesia (343K tons), Italy (335K tons), Brazil (318K tons) and Poland (288K tons) - together made up 31% of total imports.

China was also the fastest-growing in terms of the synthetic rubber imports, with a CAGR of +12.8% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Vietnam (+10.7%), Turkey (+5.9%), Malaysia (+4.4%), Brazil (+4.3%), Thailand (+3.0%), Italy (+2.9%), Belgium (+2.7%), Poland (+2.7%), the United States (+1.9%), Indonesia (+1.5%) and India (+1.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. While the share of China (+18 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of Germany (-1.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($9B) constitutes the largest market for imported synthetic rubber worldwide, comprising 28% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($1.8B), with a 5.8% share of global imports. It was followed by Germany, with a 4.7% share.

In China, synthetic rubber imports expanded at an average annual rate of +5.9% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-1.1% per year) and Germany (-1.5% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average synthetic rubber import price amounted to $2,292 per ton, with an increase of 9.2% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, showed a pronounced setback. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 31% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $3,244 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($2,906 per ton), while Malaysia ($1,510 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (-1.3%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Synthetic Rubber

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in overseas shipments of synthetic rubber, when their volume decreased by -6% to 13M tons. In general, total exports indicated a moderate expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 17%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at 14M tons in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

In value terms, synthetic rubber exports rose to $29.8B in 2022. Overall, total exports indicated a slight increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +38.2% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when exports increased by 36% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

The shipments of the twelve major exporters of synthetic rubber, namely Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, Russia, the United States, Germany, China, Japan, Taiwan (Chinese), Belgium, Malaysia and Singapore, represented more than two-thirds of total export.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Thailand (with a CAGR of +33.9%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest synthetic rubber supplying countries worldwide were South Korea ($3.2B), Thailand ($3B) and the United States ($2.9B), together comprising 31% of global exports.

Thailand, with a CAGR of +26.8%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average synthetic rubber export price amounted to $2,231 per ton, surging by 8.7% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, saw a noticeable contraction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 31% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $3,088 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($3,544 per ton), while Vietnam ($1,549 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Malaysia (+0.3%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform