Sugary Soft Drink Market

The article discusses the forecasted growth in the global sugary soft drink market, with an expected increase in both volume and value over the next eight years. Key findings include an anticipated CAGR of +1.3% in volume and +5.3% in value from 2022 to 2030, reaching 469B litres and $674.3B respectively. Consumption, production, imports, and exports trends are analyzed, highlighting key consuming and producing countries such as China, the United States, India, and Nigeria. Import and export prices are also examined, with insights into notable growth rates and fluctuations in the market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for sugary soft drinks worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 469B litres by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $674.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Sugary Soft Drinks

In 2022, consumption of sugary soft drinks increased by 0.1% to 423B litres, rising for the fifth year in a row after two years of decline. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 10%. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

The global sugary soft drink market value soared to $447.6B in 2022, with an increase of 34% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, consumption reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (65B litres), the United States (42B litres) and India (26B litres), together accounting for 31% of global consumption. Pakistan, Nigeria, Indonesia, Brazil, the UK, Bangladesh, Japan, Germany, Russia and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 26%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Nigeria (with a CAGR of +11.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest sugary soft drink markets worldwide were China ($42.2B), the United States ($35.5B) and India ($28.4B), together comprising 24% of the global market. Japan, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria, the UK, Mexico, Germany, Brazil, Russia and Bangladesh lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 19%.

Nigeria, with a CAGR of +11.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of sugary soft drink per capita consumption in 2022 were the UK (164 litres per person), the United States (125 litres per person) and Germany (102 litres per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Nigeria (with a CAGR of +8.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Sugary Soft Drinks

In 2022, production of sugary soft drinks increased by 0.5% to 425B litres, rising for the fifth consecutive year after two years of decline. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 10%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, sugary soft drink production amounted to $336.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level at $360.5B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (65B litres), the United States (42B litres) and India (26B litres), together accounting for 31% of global production. Pakistan, Nigeria, Indonesia, Brazil, the UK, Bangladesh, Japan, Germany, Mexico and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Nigeria (with a CAGR of +11.3%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Sugary Soft Drinks

In 2022, global imports of sugary soft drinks totaled 15B litres, approximately equating 2021 figures. Overall, total imports indicated a buoyant expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +74.4% against 2012 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 16%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, sugary soft drink imports fell to $13.6B in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a buoyant increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +76.3% against 2012 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 15% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of $13.9B, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

Imports By Country

Germany (1,074M litres), the UK (1,036M litres), the Netherlands (893M litres), the United States (812M litres), France (812M litres) and Belgium (771M litres) represented roughly 36% of total imports in 2022. Ireland (400M litres), Canada (370M litres), Austria (348M litres), Hungary (329M litres), Slovakia (291M litres), Kazakhstan (281M litres) and Sweden (263M litres) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Kazakhstan (with a CAGR of +31.8%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($1.3B), Germany ($1.1B) and the UK ($814M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 24% share of global imports. Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Austria, Canada, Ireland, Sweden, Kazakhstan, Slovakia and Hungary lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 30%.

Kazakhstan, with a CAGR of +25.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average sugary soft drink import price stood at $0.9 per litre in 2022, which is down by -2.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the average import price increased by 3.3% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $0.9 per litre in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Austria ($1.6 per litre), while Hungary ($0.3 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Austria (+3.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Sugary Soft Drinks

In 2022, global exports of sugary soft drinks expanded sharply to 16B litres, picking up by 12% against 2021. In general, total exports indicated a buoyant increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +80.6% against 2012 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 17% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, sugary soft drink exports reached $13.8B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a strong expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +94.4% against 2015 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 15%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

The biggest shipments were from Austria (1,789M litres), Germany (1,432M litres), the Netherlands (1,216M litres), Poland (1,049M litres), France (831M litres), Thailand (822M litres), Belgium (558M litres), the United States (518M litres), the UK (493M litres), Mexico (439M litres), Turkey (411M litres) and Hungary (384M litres), together finishing at 61% of total export. The Czech Republic (360M litres) held a little share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Thailand (with a CAGR of +25.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Austria ($3B) remains the largest sugary soft drink supplier worldwide, comprising 22% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the Netherlands ($1.3B), with a 9.2% share of global exports. It was followed by Germany, with a 6.7% share.

In Austria, sugary soft drink exports increased at an average annual rate of +6.7% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Netherlands (+10.2% per year) and Germany (+3.1% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average sugary soft drink export price amounted to $0.9 per litre, standing approx. at the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the average export price increased by 8.4% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $0.9 per litre. From 2021 to 2022, the average export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Austria ($1.7 per litre), while the Czech Republic ($0.4 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+3.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform