Smoked Salmon Market

The global smoked salmon market is expected to see a steady increase in consumption, production, exports, and imports over the next eight years. Market performance is forecasted to retain its current trend pattern, with a CAGR of +3.0% for market volume and +5.1% for market value by 2030. Countries like China, the United States, and Poland are key players in both consumption and production. The market saw some fluctuations in recent years, but is projected to continue its upward trajectory. Poland leads in both production and exports, with Lithuania and Germany also playing significant roles. The average prices and per capita consumption rates vary among countries, with Chile and France having the highest export prices and Poland being the largest supplier of smoked salmon worldwide.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for smoked pacific, atlantic and danube salmon worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 3.7M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $61.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Smoked Pacific, Atlantic And Danube Salmon

In 2022, approx. 2.9M tons of smoked pacific, atlantic and danube salmon were consumed worldwide; with an increase of 2.6% on the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 8.6%. Global consumption peaked at 3M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global smoked salmon market value reached $41.5B in 2022, with an increase of 1.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at $43.4B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (674K tons), the United States (459K tons) and India (264K tons), with a combined 48% share of global consumption. Poland, Indonesia, Pakistan, Iran, Bangladesh, Turkey, Thailand and Vietnam lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Poland (with a CAGR of +12.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($9.6B), the United States ($8.6B) and Poland ($2.9B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together comprising 51% of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Poland, with a CAGR of +12.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of smoked salmon per capita consumption was registered in Poland (4,882 kg per 1000 persons), followed by the United States (1,368 kg per 1000 persons), Thailand (657 kg per 1000 persons) and Turkey (625 kg per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of smoked salmon was estimated at 4.9 kg per 1000 persons.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the smoked salmon per capita consumption in Poland stood at +12.1%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: the United States (+3.3% per year) and Thailand (+1.7% per year).

Production

World Production of Smoked Pacific, Atlantic And Danube Salmon

In 2022, the amount of smoked pacific, atlantic and danube salmon produced worldwide was estimated at 2.9M tons, increasing by 2.3% on 2021. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the production volume increased by 8.6% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 3M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, smoked salmon production rose to $42.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the production volume increased by 13%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak level at $45.3B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (674K tons), the United States (449K tons) and India (264K tons), together accounting for 48% of global production. Poland, Indonesia, Pakistan, Iran, Bangladesh, Turkey, Thailand and Vietnam lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Poland (with a CAGR of +9.4%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Smoked Pacific, Atlantic And Danube Salmon

In 2022, purchases abroad of smoked pacific, atlantic and danube salmon increased by 4.1% to 127K tons, rising for the second year in a row after four years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

In value terms, smoked salmon imports rose rapidly to $2.1B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when imports increased by 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Germany (31K tons), distantly followed by Italy (20K tons), France (14K tons), the United States (10K tons), Belgium (8.8K tons) and Greece (7.2K tons) represented the major importers of smoked pacific, atlantic and danube salmon, together achieving 72% of total imports. Switzerland (3.8K tons), Austria (3.1K tons), Australia (3.1K tons), Denmark (2.8K tons) and the Netherlands (2.2K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Greece (with a CAGR of +19.3%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($504M), Italy ($350M) and the United States ($223M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together comprising 50% of global imports. France, Belgium, Switzerland, Greece, Austria, Australia, Denmark and the Netherlands lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

Greece, with a CAGR of +14.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average smoked salmon import price amounted to $16,869 per ton, with an increase of 4% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.3%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the average import price increased by 18% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $17,577 per ton in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($23,313 per ton), while Greece ($9,612 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+7.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Smoked Pacific, Atlantic And Danube Salmon

In 2022, the amount of smoked pacific, atlantic and danube salmon exported worldwide dropped slightly to 130K tons, declining by -2.5% on the previous year's figure. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 9.9%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 134K tons, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

In value terms, smoked salmon exports expanded modestly to $2.3B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when exports increased by 22%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

Poland was the major exporting country with an export of about 56K tons, which recorded 43% of total exports. Lithuania (16K tons) took a 12% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Germany (11%), Denmark (7.1%) and the Netherlands (6.6%). Belgium (4.6K tons), Greece (3.3K tons), France (3.2K tons), the UK (2.8K tons), Chile (2.5K tons) and Norway (2K tons) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to smoked salmon exports from Poland stood at +3.7%. At the same time, Belgium (+16.0%), the Netherlands (+9.0%), Germany (+5.1%) and Lithuania (+4.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Belgium emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +16.0% from 2012-2022. Greece, Norway and Denmark experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Chile (-2.0%), France (-3.1%) and the UK (-5.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Poland (+2.9 p.p.), the Netherlands (+2.9 p.p.), Belgium (+2.5 p.p.) and Germany (+2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of France (-2.1 p.p.), Denmark (-2.4 p.p.) and the UK (-2.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Poland ($953M) remains the largest smoked salmon supplier worldwide, comprising 41% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Lithuania ($274M), with a 12% share of global exports. It was followed by Germany, with an 11% share.

In Poland, smoked salmon exports expanded at an average annual rate of +6.6% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Lithuania (+8.9% per year) and Germany (+7.1% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average smoked salmon export price stood at $17,836 per ton in 2022, surging by 6.5% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.4%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the average export price increased by 17%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Chile ($22,831 per ton) and France ($22,557 per ton), while Poland ($16,864 per ton) and the UK ($17,279 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Chile (+4.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform