Plantain Market

The global plantain market is expected to continue growing over the next eight years, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% in volume and +3.3% in value. Uganda, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Cameroon are the leading consumers and producers of plantains. The United States, Guatemala, and Ecuador are major exporters, while the United States, Romania, and Belgium are key importers. Key trends include fluctuations in consumption, production, imports, and exports, with notable growth rates observed in certain countries.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for plantains worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 52M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $42.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Plantains

In 2022, approx. 46M tons of plantains were consumed worldwide; leveling off at the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

The global plantain market value expanded sharply to $32.4B in 2022, rising by 5.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Uganda (9.5M tons), Democratic Republic of the Congo (4.9M tons) and Cameroon (4.7M tons), with a combined 42% share of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Uganda (with a CAGR of +7.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest plantain markets worldwide were Uganda ($5.5B), Rwanda ($5B) and Nigeria ($2.9B), with a combined 41% share of the global market.

Rwanda, with a CAGR of +355.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of plantain per capita consumption in 2022 were Uganda (196 kg per person), Cameroon (170 kg per person) and Ghana (145 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Uganda (with a CAGR of +4.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Plantains

In 2022, the amount of plantains produced worldwide was estimated at 46M tons, approximately mirroring the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 17%. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak volume at 46M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a tangible increase of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, plantain production contracted modestly to $26.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $27.8B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Uganda (9.5M tons), Democratic Republic of the Congo (4.9M tons) and Cameroon (4.7M tons), with a combined 42% share of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Uganda (with a CAGR of +7.7%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

In 2022, the global average plantain yield reduced slightly to 6.7 tons per ha, leveling off at the year before. Overall, the yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the yield increased by 4.1%. As a result, the yield attained the peak level of 7.2 tons per ha. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the average plantain yield remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the total area harvested in terms of plantains production worldwide was estimated at 6.8M ha, approximately mirroring the previous year. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when the harvested area increased by 26% against the previous year. The global harvested area peaked at 6.9M ha in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Imports

World Imports of Plantains

In 2022, purchases abroad of plantains decreased by -3% to 1.2M tons, falling for the second year in a row after nine years of growth. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when imports increased by 11%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at 1.3M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, plantain imports expanded remarkably to $809M in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 13%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (386K tons) was the main importer of plantains, achieving 32% of total imports. El Salvador (65K tons) took a 5.4% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Romania (5.2%). Belgium (43K tons), Italy (43K tons), the United Arab Emirates (42K tons), Spain (38K tons), Honduras (35K tons), Hungary (34K tons), Qatar (34K tons), the UK (32K tons), the Netherlands (32K tons) and France (27K tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

Imports into the United States increased at an average annual rate of +9.4% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, the United Arab Emirates (+17.3%), Hungary (+11.8%), Honduras (+9.7%), Romania (+9.6%), the Netherlands (+8.9%), Italy (+7.2%), Qatar (+2.5%) and the UK (+2.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the United Arab Emirates emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +17.3% from 2012-2022. El Salvador and Spain experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Belgium (-4.9%) and France (-6.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of the United States (+13 p.p.), the United Arab Emirates (+2.5 p.p.) and Romania (+2.2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of Spain (-1.8 p.p.), El Salvador (-2 p.p.), France (-4.3 p.p.) and Belgium (-5.1 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($218M) constitutes the largest market for imported plantains worldwide, comprising 27% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Romania ($57M), with a 7% share of global imports. It was followed by Belgium, with a 4.9% share.

In the United States, plantain imports expanded at an average annual rate of +11.4% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Romania (+10.3% per year) and Belgium (-0.4% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average plantain import price stood at $677 per ton in 2022, surging by 12% against the previous year. In general, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was France ($1,072 per ton), while El Salvador ($156 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Honduras (+8.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Plantains

In 2022, shipments abroad of plantains decreased by -21.3% to 999K tons, falling for the second consecutive year after nine years of growth. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when exports increased by 16%. The global exports peaked at 1.3M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, plantain exports reduced rapidly to $533M in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when exports increased by 17%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at $736M in 2021, and then declined dramatically in the following year.

Exports By Country

Guatemala (314K tons) and Ecuador (259K tons) represented roughly 57% of total exports in 2022. Colombia (147K tons) took a 15% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Nicaragua (6.6%). The following exporters - the United States (27K tons), Mexico (18K tons), the Netherlands (17K tons), Sri Lanka (16K tons) and the United Arab Emirates (15K tons) - together made up 9.4% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +30.6%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest plantain supplying countries worldwide were Ecuador ($137M), Guatemala ($125M) and Colombia ($94M), with a combined 67% share of global exports. The United States, the Netherlands, Nicaragua, Mexico, the United Arab Emirates and Sri Lanka lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 20%.

The United Arab Emirates, with a CAGR of +36.6%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average plantain export price amounted to $533 per ton, falling by -8.1% against the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a mild downturn. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 an increase of 10% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $695 per ton. From 2014 to 2022, the average export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($1,616 per ton), while Nicaragua ($304 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Nicaragua (+5.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform