Orange Market

The global orange market is expected to continue its upward trend driven by increasing demand worldwide. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, with a projected CAGR of +1.8% in consumption and +3.7% in value from 2022 to 2030. In 2022, consumption decreased by -0.3% to 76M tons, while the market value increased to $54.3B. Brazil, India, and China are the top consuming countries, while Spain and South Africa are major exporters. Spain saw the highest growth rate in exports, while the United States had the highest export price per ton.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for oranges worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 88M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $72.4B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Oranges

In 2022, consumption of oranges decreased by -0.3% to 76M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after six years of growth. Over the period under review, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at 77M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global orange market value reached $54.3B in 2022, increasing by 3.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. Global consumption peaked at $57.3B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Brazil (17M tons), India (10M tons) and China (7.7M tons), with a combined 46% share of global consumption. Mexico, the United States, Indonesia, Egypt, Iran, Italy, Vietnam, Pakistan, Spain and Algeria lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Vietnam (with a CAGR of +12.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($10.7B), Brazil ($7.4B) and the United States ($4.7B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 42% share of the global market. India, Mexico, Egypt, Italy, Iran, Spain, Vietnam, Indonesia, Algeria and Pakistan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

Vietnam, with a CAGR of +15.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of orange per capita consumption was registered in Brazil (79 kg per person), followed by Mexico (36 kg per person), Italy (32 kg per person) and Spain (28 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of orange was estimated at 9.7 kg per person.

In Brazil, orange per capita consumption decreased by an average annual rate of -1.4% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Mexico (+1.5% per year) and Italy (+0.3% per year).

Production

World Production of Oranges

In 2022, global production of oranges reached 77M tons, leveling off at the previous year. In general, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when the production volume increased by 4.3%. Global production peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, orange production rose notably to $59.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 29%. Global production peaked at $62.7B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Brazil (17M tons), India (10M tons) and China (7.6M tons), with a combined 45% share of global production. Mexico, Egypt, the United States, Spain, Indonesia, Iran, Vietnam, Italy, South Africa and Pakistan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Vietnam (with a CAGR of +13.3%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

In 2022, the global average orange yield was estimated at 19 tons per ha, approximately reflecting 2021 figures. Overall, the yield saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when the yield increased by 2.5%. Over the period under review, the average orange yield reached the peak level at 20 tons per ha in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the yield remained at a lower figure.

Harvested Area

The global orange harvested area reduced slightly to 4M ha in 2022, approximately mirroring the previous year's figure. In general, the harvested area, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 4.2%. As a result, the harvested area reached the peak level of 4.1M ha. From 2014 to 2022, the growth of the global orange harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Imports

World Imports of Oranges

In 2022, overseas purchases of oranges decreased by -12.6% to 6.2M tons, falling for the third year in a row after five years of growth. In general, imports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when imports increased by 7.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at 7.3M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, orange imports dropped to $5.2B in 2022. Overall, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 18%. As a result, imports reached the peak of $6.2B. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the three major importers of oranges, namely the Netherlands, France and Germany, represented more than 0.0% of total import. It was followed by Russia (296K tons), achieving a 4.8% share of total imports. The following importers - the UK (252K tons), the United States (231K tons), China (210K tons), Italy (195K tons), Bangladesh (191K tons), Hong Kong SAR (186K tons), Canada (183K tons), the United Arab Emirates (172K tons) and Poland (167K tons) - together made up 29% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Bangladesh (with a CAGR of +11.3%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest orange importing markets worldwide were the Netherlands ($447M), France ($422M) and Germany ($415M), together accounting for 25% of global imports. Hong Kong SAR, the United States, China, Canada, Russia, the UK, Italy, Poland, Bangladesh and the United Arab Emirates lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 36%.

Bangladesh, with a CAGR of +17.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average orange import price amounted to $837 per ton, standing approx. at the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 an increase of 18%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $852 per ton. From 2021 to 2022, the average import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Hong Kong SAR ($1,313 per ton), while Bangladesh ($631 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Bangladesh (+5.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Oranges

In 2022, shipments abroad of oranges decreased by -2.5% to 6.6M tons, falling for the third year in a row after four years of growth. In general, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when exports increased by 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure at 7.6M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, orange exports fell to $4.9B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when exports increased by 19% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $5.6B. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Spain (1.6M tons) and South Africa (1.3M tons) represented the major exporters of orangesacross the globe, together accounting for approx. 45% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Egypt (712K tons), the United States (336K tons), the Netherlands (322K tons) and Turkey (317K tons), together creating a 26% share of total exports. Greece (266K tons), Ghana (243K tons), Australia (143K tons), Portugal (140K tons) and Morocco (123K tons) took a little share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Ghana (with a CAGR of +100.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest orange supplying countries worldwide were Spain ($1.3B), South Africa ($760M) and Egypt ($636M), with a combined 55% share of global exports. The United States, the Netherlands, Australia, Greece, Portugal, Turkey, Morocco and Ghana lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

Ghana, with a CAGR of +67.7%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average orange export price amounted to $753 per ton, which is down by -8% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when the average export price increased by 33%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $826 per ton. From 2021 to 2022, the average export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($1,467 per ton), while Ghana ($257 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+4.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform