Oil Crops Market

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the global oil crops market, highlighting trends in consumption, production, imports, and exports. Forecasts indicate an upward consumption trend with a CAGR of +2.9% by 2030, reaching 1,374M tons. Market value is projected to increase to $1,421B by 2030. Key consuming countries include Indonesia, China, and Malaysia. Brazil, the United States, and Canada are major producers. Soya beans dominate exports with China and the United States as leading exporters. Detailed data on prices, trends, and projections are also provided for a thorough understanding of the market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for oil crops (primary) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1,374M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $1,421B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Oil Crops

In 2022, consumption of oil crops (primary) decreased by -0.9% to 1,090M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. Global consumption peaked at 1,100M tons in 2021, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

The global oil crops market value fell modestly to $978.6B in 2022, stabilizing at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market reached the maximum level at $988.8B in 2021, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Indonesia (277M tons), China (166M tons) and Malaysia (95M tons), together comprising 49% of global consumption. The United States, India, Brazil, Argentina, Russia, Thailand, Nigeria and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +10.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest oil crops markets worldwide were China ($185.1B), Malaysia ($141.3B) and Indonesia ($123.2B), with a combined 46% share of the global market. Brazil, India, the United States, Thailand, Argentina, Nigeria, Russia and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.

Russia, with a CAGR of +9.5%, saw the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of oil crops per capita consumption was registered in Malaysia (2,849 kg per person), followed by Argentina (1,035 kg per person), Indonesia (991 kg per person) and Canada (428 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of oil crops was estimated at 139 kg per person.

In Malaysia, oil crops per capita consumption plunged by an average annual rate of -1.5% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Argentina (+1.2% per year) and Indonesia (+2.7% per year).

Consumption By Type

The products with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were oilcrops, nes (434M tons), soya beans (345M tons) and rape or colza seed (87M tons), with a combined 79% share of global consumption. Coconuts, ground-nut (in-shell), sunflower seed, cottonseed, sesame seed, linseed, mustard seed and poppy seed lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 21%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consumed products, was attained by mustard seed (with a CAGR of +6.2%), while consumption for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, oilcrops, nes ($482B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by soya beans ($191.1B). It was followed by rape or colza seed.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of oilcrops, nes market stood at +2.2%. With regard to the other consumed products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: soya beans (+3.4% per year) and rape or colza seed (+1.8% per year).

Production

World Production of Oil Crops

After two years of growth, production of oil crops (primary) decreased by -0.2% to 1,099M tons in 2022. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 11%. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak volume at 1,101M tons in 2021, and then contracted slightly in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by perceptible growth of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, oil crops production reduced to $936.3B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 17%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $1,010.5B. From 2014 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

Indonesia (275M tons) remains the largest oil crops producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 25% of total volume. Moreover, oil crops production in Indonesia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Brazil (132M tons), twofold. The United States (127M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 12% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Indonesia stood at +3.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Brazil (+6.0% per year) and the United States (+3.1% per year).

Production By Type

The products with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were oilcrops, nes (434M tons), soya beans (352M tons) and rape or colza seed (88M tons), with a combined 80% share of global production. Coconuts, sunflower seed, ground-nut (in-shell), cottonseed, sesame seed, linseed, mustard seed and poppy seed lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 20%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for mustard seed (with a CAGR of +6.4%), while production for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, oilcrops, nes ($450.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by soya beans ($174.4B). It was followed by rape or colza seed.

For oilcrops, nes, production remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: soya beans (+2.1% per year) and rape or colza seed (+7.0% per year).

Yield

The global average oil crops yield contracted to 3.6 tons per ha in 2022, shrinking by -2.2% against the previous year. Overall, the yield, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 6.7%. The global yield peaked at 3.8 tons per ha in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Harvested Area

The global oil crops harvested area stood at 302M ha in 2022, picking up by 2% against the previous year. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the harvested area increased by 4.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to oil crops production reached the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports

World Imports of Oil Crops

In 2022, supplies from abroad of oil crops (primary) decreased by -3.6% to 190M tons, falling for the second year in a row after four years of growth. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 204M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, oil crops imports surged to $137.2B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated a prominent increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +66.3% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 30% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

China dominates imports structure, resulting at 97M tons, which was near 51% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Germany (9.5M tons), committing a 5% share of total imports. The Netherlands (6.6M tons), Japan (5.9M tons), Turkey (4.3M tons), Spain (3.9M tons), Belgium (3.5M tons), Egypt (3.4M tons), Argentina (3.3M tons), Thailand (3.2M tons) and Iran (2.9M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to oil crops imports into China stood at +4.5%. At the same time, Argentina (+79.2%), Iran (+27.0%), Turkey (+6.2%), Egypt (+5.2%), Thailand (+4.0%), the Netherlands (+2.5%) and Germany (+1.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Argentina emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +79.2% from 2012-2022. Japan, Belgium and Spain experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. Argentina (+1.7 p.p.) and China (+1.7 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while Germany saw its share reduced by -1.6% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($65.8B) constitutes the largest market for imported oil crops (primary) worldwide, comprising 48% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Germany ($7.5B), with a 5.4% share of global imports. It was followed by Japan, with a 3.6% share.

In China, oil crops imports expanded at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+3.6% per year) and Japan (+2.5% per year).

Imports By Type

In 2022, soya beans (150M tons) represented the major type of oil crops (primary), creating 79% of total imports. It was distantly followed by rape or colza seed (23M tons), achieving a 12% share of total imports. Sunflower seed (7.7M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to soya beans imports of stood at +4.5%. At the same time, sunflower seed (+6.1%) and rape or colza seed (+1.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, sunflower seed emerged as the fastest-growing type imported in the world, with a CAGR of +6.1% from 2012-2022. While the share of soya beans (+3.3 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of rape or colza seed (-4 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, soya beans ($102.3B) constitutes the largest type of oil crops (primary) imported worldwide, comprising 75% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by rape or colza seed ($18B), with a 13% share of global imports. It was followed by sunflower seed, with a 5.4% share.

For soya beans, imports increased at an average annual rate of +5.9% over the period from 2012-2022. With regard to the other imported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: rape or colza seed (+3.1% per year) and sunflower seed (+7.6% per year).

Import Prices By Type

The average oil crops import price stood at $724 per ton in 2022, growing by 20% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a slight expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, oil crops import price increased by +65.2% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 35% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was poppy seed ($2,616 per ton), while the price for cottonseed ($404 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by mustard seed (+5.0%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average oil crops import price amounted to $724 per ton, rising by 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated modest growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, oil crops import price increased by +65.2% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 35%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Japan ($828 per ton) and Germany ($785 per ton), while Iran ($620 per ton) and Argentina ($645 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+2.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Oil Crops

In 2022, the amount of oil crops (primary) exported worldwide totaled 198M tons, remaining constant against 2021. Overall, total exports indicated a notable increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports decreased by -7.2% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 34% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 214M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, oil crops exports soared to $127.3B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a strong increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +68.2% against 2019 indices. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Brazil (79M tons) and the United States (58M tons) were the major exporters of oil crops (primary)in the world, together comprising 69% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Canada (10M tons), comprising a 5.2% share of total exports. The following exporters - Ukraine (7.9M tons), Australia (7.1M tons), Argentina (5.4M tons) and Uruguay (3.4M tons) - together made up 12% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Ukraine (with a CAGR of +9.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Brazil ($46.7B), the United States ($35.1B) and Canada ($7.5B) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 70% share of global exports. Australia, Ukraine, Argentina and Uruguay lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 11%.

Australia, with a CAGR of +11.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Soya beans represented the main type of oil crops (primary) in the world, with the volume of exports amounting to 157M tons, which was near 79% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by rape or colza seed (24M tons), comprising a 12% share of total exports. Sunflower seed (8.3M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to soya beans exports of stood at +5.1%. At the same time, sunflower seed (+6.4%) and rape or colza seed (+1.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, sunflower seed emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in the world, with a CAGR of +6.4% from 2012-2022. Soya beans (+3.5 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while rape or colza seed saw its share reduced by -3.8% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, soya beans ($94.1B) remains the largest type of oil crops (primary) supplied worldwide, comprising 74% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by rape or colza seed ($17.9B), with a 14% share of global exports. It was followed by sunflower seed, with a 5.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of soya beans exports totaled +5.9%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: rape or colza seed (+3.6% per year) and sunflower seed (+6.6% per year).

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average oil crops export price amounted to $642 per ton, rising by 21% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 29%. The global export price peaked at $758 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was poppy seed ($2,747 per ton), while the average price for exports of cottonseed ($366 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by mustard seed (+4.4%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average oil crops export price stood at $642 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 21% against the previous year. Overall, the export price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 29% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $758 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Australia ($750 per ton), while Ukraine ($471 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Australia (+3.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform