Oil And Water Paints And Varnishes Market

The global market for oil and water paints and varnishes is projected to experience a decrease in consumption and production over the next eight years. China leads in both consumption and production of these products, with the United Arab Emirates being the largest exporter. Import and export prices are likely to see fluctuations in the near future.

Market Forecast

The market for oil and water paints and varnishes is expected to start a downward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to decrease slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of -0.7% for the eight-year period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to depress the market volume to 1.3M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of +0.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $6.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Oil And Water Paints And Varnishes

Global consumption of oil and water paints and varnishes amounted to 1.4M tons in 2022, approximately mirroring 2021 figures. Over the period under review, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the consumption volume increased by 9.7%. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 1.4M tons; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

The revenue of the market for oil and water paints and varnishes worldwide amounted to $5.9B in 2022, remaining stable against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $6.3B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of consumption of oil and water paints and varnishes was China (359K tons), accounting for 26% of total volume. Moreover, consumption of oil and water paints and varnishes in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (146K tons), twofold. The United States (141K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 10% share.

In China, consumption of oil and water paints and varnishes expanded at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+5.0% per year) and the United States (-2.5% per year).

In value terms, the largest oil and water paints and varnishes markets worldwide were China ($1.2B), Japan ($1.2B) and the United States ($1.1B), with a combined 59% share of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, China, with a CAGR of +3.9%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while varnishes for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of oil and water paints and varnishes per capita consumption in 2022 were Germany (803 kg per 1000 persons), Italy (714 kg per 1000 persons) and Japan (584 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of varnishes, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +3.9%), while varnishes for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Oil And Water Paints And Varnishes

In 2022, approx. 1.4M tons of oil and water paints and varnishes were produced worldwide; with an increase of 4.8% compared with the year before. Overall, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 with an increase of 9.3%. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 1.4M tons; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In value terms, production of oil and water paints and varnishes declined to $5.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production of attained the peak level at $6.3B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

China (357K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of production of oil and water paints and varnishes, accounting for 26% of total volume. Moreover, production of oil and water paints and varnishes in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (148K tons), twofold. India (144K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 10% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China stood at +2.1%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-2.6% per year) and India (+5.1% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Oil And Water Paints And Varnishes

In 2022, the amount of oil and water paints and varnishes imported worldwide contracted to 180K tons, with a decrease of -8.2% on 2021 figures. Over the period under review, imports recorded a slight reduction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports of hit record highs at 217K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, imports of oil and water paints and varnishes fell to $953M in 2022. Overall, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 22%. Over the period under review, global imports of attained the peak figure at $992M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of imports of oil and water paints and varnishes in 2022 were Austria (9K tons), Turkey (8.5K tons), France (7.6K tons), Spain (7.4K tons), China (7.3K tons), Romania (6.4K tons), Poland (6.3K tons), Italy (5.7K tons), Vietnam (5.1K tons), Belgium (4.9K tons), Singapore (4.8K tons) and Taiwan (Chinese) (4.6K tons), together resulting at 43% of total import. Thailand (4.1K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Belgium (with a CAGR of +15.4%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($106M) constitutes the largest market for imported oil and water paints and varnishes worldwide, comprising 11% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Turkey ($44M), with a 4.6% share of global imports. It was followed by Poland, with a 4.2% share.

In China, imports of oil and water paints and varnishes remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Turkey (+10.1% per year) and Poland (+4.1% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average import price for oil and water paints and varnishes amounted to $5,293 per ton, picking up by 6.8% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.6%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 9.7%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was China ($14,627 per ton), while Romania ($2,840 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+8.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Oil And Water Paints And Varnishes

In 2022, overseas shipments of oil and water paints and varnishes increased by 20% to 195K tons, rising for the second consecutive year after three years of decline. Overall, exports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The global exports peaked at 222K tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, exports of oil and water paints and varnishes rose notably to $846M in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 22%. Over the period under review, the global exports of attained the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

In 2022, the United Arab Emirates (45K tons), distantly followed by Germany (21K tons) and Italy (14K tons) were the largest exporters of oil and water paints and varnishes, together comprising 41% of total exports. The United States (8.7K tons), the Netherlands (8.7K tons), Turkey (7.8K tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (7.6K tons), Spain (6.8K tons), Belgium (6.2K tons), China (5.3K tons), Belarus (5.2K tons), the UK (5K tons) and Singapore (4.9K tons) held a minor share of total exports.

The United Arab Emirates was also the fastest-growing in terms of the oil and water paints and varnishes exports, with a CAGR of +26.3% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Belarus (+20.1%), Belgium (+18.6%), Germany (+2.4%) and Italy (+1.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. The UK and Singapore experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Netherlands (-3.2%), Turkey (-3.8%), the United States (-3.9%), China (-4.3%), Spain (-5.0%) and Taiwan (Chinese) (-9.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of the United Arab Emirates, Belgium and Belarus increased by +20, +2.6 and +2.2 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest oil and water paints and varnishes supplying countries worldwide were Germany ($147M), the United States ($77M) and the Netherlands ($57M), together comprising 33% of global exports. Italy, Taiwan (Chinese), Belgium, the UK, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, China, Spain, Singapore and Belarus lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 32%.

Among the main exporting countries, the United Arab Emirates, with a CAGR of +21.3%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average export price for oil and water paints and varnishes stood at $4,339 per ton in 2022, which is down by -10.8% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the average export price increased by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure at $4,863 per ton in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($8,791 per ton), while the United Arab Emirates ($570 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+5.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform