Mixtures of Urea and Ammonium Nitrate in Aqueous or Ammoniacal Solution Market

The market for mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution is forecasted to show growth in both volume and value terms from 2022 to 2030, with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% in consumption and +4.2% in value. Major consuming countries include the United States, France, and Russia, while the United States, Russia, and Canada are the top producers. Import and export volumes are also expected to increase, with key importing countries being France, the United States, and Belgium, and major exporters including the United States, Russia, and Trinidad and Tobago. Price trends show a slight increase in both import and export prices, with notable growth in 2021.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 33M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $9.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Mixtures of Urea and Ammonium Nitrate in Aqueous or Ammoniacal Solution

In 2022, approx. 27M tons of mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution were consumed worldwide; surging by 3.6% on 2021. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when the consumption volume increased by 8.7%. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

The size of the market for mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution worldwide rose sharply to $6.9B in 2022, picking up by 6.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Consumption By Country

The United States (11M tons) remains the largest mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution consuming country worldwide, accounting for 40% of total volume. Moreover, consumption of mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, France (3.1M tons), fourfold. Russia (2.3M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with an 8.5% share.

In the United States, consumption of mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: France (+4.3% per year) and Russia (+17.1% per year).

In value terms, the United States ($2.2B), France ($1.1B) and Russia ($493M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together comprising 54% of the global market. Canada, Belarus, Argentina, the UK, Australia, Poland, Egypt, the Netherlands, Belgium and Ukraine lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 31%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, the Netherlands, with a CAGR of +19.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while solution for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of per capita consumption of mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution was registered in Belarus (133 kg per person), followed by France (45 kg per person), Canada (39 kg per person) and Belgium (36 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution was estimated at 3.4 kg per person.

In Belarus, per capita consumption of mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution expanded at an average annual rate of +9.7% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: France (+4.0% per year) and Canada (+4.6% per year).

Production

World Production of Mixtures of Urea and Ammonium Nitrate in Aqueous or Ammoniacal Solution

In 2022, after seven years of growth, there was decline in production of mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution, when its volume decreased by -0.5% to 26M tons. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 6.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production of hit record highs at 26M tons in 2021, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

In value terms, production of mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution dropped sharply to $5.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 58% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $6.6B, and then plummeted in the following year.

Production By Country

The United States (12M tons) remains the largest mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 44% of total volume. Moreover, production of mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Russia (4.4M tons), threefold. Canada (1.5M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 5.6% share.

In the United States, production of mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution expanded at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Russia (+10.1% per year) and Canada (+4.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Mixtures of Urea and Ammonium Nitrate in Aqueous or Ammoniacal Solution

Global imports of mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution soared to 11M tons in 2022, increasing by 40% compared with 2021. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, imports of mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution skyrocketed to $4.3B in 2022. Overall, imports posted a resilient increase. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, France (3.1M tons), distantly followed by the United States (1,833K tons), Belgium (1,246K tons), Argentina (816K tons), the UK (670K tons), Australia (535K tons) and Canada (514K tons) were the key importers of mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution, together achieving 77% of total imports. Germany (481K tons), Spain (249K tons), Romania (237K tons), Hungary (186K tons) and Lithuania (171K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Romania (with a CAGR of +62.2%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, France ($1.1B), the United States ($716M) and Belgium ($374M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 53% share of global imports. The UK, Australia, Argentina, Canada, Germany, Lithuania, Spain, Hungary and Romania lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

Romania, with a CAGR of +48.2%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average import price for mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution stood at $376 per ton in 2022, rising by 28% against the previous year. Overall, the import price showed a slight expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 63% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Australia ($526 per ton), while Romania ($253 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Lithuania (+8.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Mixtures of Urea and Ammonium Nitrate in Aqueous or Ammoniacal Solution

In 2022, overseas shipments of mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution increased by 26% to 10M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, exports of mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution surged to $3.7B in 2022. In general, exports recorded strong growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 81% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports of hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

The United States (2.5M tons) and Russia (2.1M tons) represented the major exporters of mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution in 2022, recording approx. 24% and 20% of total exports, respectively. It was distantly followed by Trinidad and Tobago (1,303K tons), the Netherlands (1,041K tons), Belgium (882K tons), Lithuania (794K tons) and Canada (467K tons), together creating a 43% share of total exports. Germany (286K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the United States (with a CAGR of +31.5%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution supplying countries worldwide were Russia ($857M), the United States ($672M) and Trinidad and Tobago ($506M), together accounting for 55% of global exports.

The United States, with a CAGR of +30.3%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average export price for mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution stood at $361 per ton in 2022, picking up by 33% against the previous year. Overall, the export price posted temperate growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 64%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($522 per ton), while the United States ($267 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+6.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform