Milk Market

The article analyzes the global milk market trends from 2022 to 2030, predicting an upward consumption trend with a projected market volume of 1,231M tons by 2030. Market performance is expected to grow with a CAGR of +2.0% in consumption and +3.2% in value. Key findings include India, the United States, and Pakistan as top consuming and producing countries. Whole fresh milk dominates the market in both consumption and production, showcasing steady growth rates. Imports and exports of milk also show promising trends, with Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands playing significant roles in global trade.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for milk worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1,231M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $1,249.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Milk

In 2022, consumption of milk decreased by less than 0.1% to 1,052M tons for the first time since 2011, thus ending a ten-year rising trend. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the consumption volume increased by 3.2%. Global consumption peaked at 1,052M tons in 2021, and then dropped modestly in the following year.

The global milk market value expanded slightly to $972.5B in 2022, surging by 1.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the market value increased by 8%. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $986.5B. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were India (214M tons), the United States (119M tons) and Pakistan (59M tons), with a combined 37% share of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +4.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest milk markets worldwide were India ($154.2B), the United States ($138.7B) and Pakistan ($43.9B), together accounting for 35% of the global market.

India, with a CAGR of +6.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of milk per capita consumption was registered in New Zealand (5,897 kg per person), followed by the Netherlands (1,062 kg per person), Germany (551 kg per person) and France (519 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of milk was estimated at 133 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the milk per capita consumption in New Zealand was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Netherlands (+1.8% per year) and Germany (+0.3% per year).

Consumption By Type

Whole fresh milk (917M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption, accounting for 87% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk (135M tons), sevenfold.

For whole fresh milk, consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012-2022.

In value terms, whole fresh milk ($732.7B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by skim milk ($161.1B).

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of whole fresh milk market stood at +1.8%.

Production

World Production of Milk

In 2022, production of milk decreased by -0.1% to 1,051M tons for the first time since 2011, thus ending a ten-year rising trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the production volume increased by 3.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume at 1,052M tons in 2021, and then reduced modestly in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a slight expansion of the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, milk production rose modestly to $823.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the production volume increased by 7.5%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum level at $871.3B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were India (214M tons), the United States (119M tons) and Pakistan (59M tons), with a combined 37% share of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +4.7%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production By Type

Whole fresh milk (916M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of production, comprising approx. 87% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk (135M tons), sevenfold.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the volume of whole fresh milk production stood at +2.0%.

In value terms, whole fresh milk ($720.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by skim milk ($103.4B).

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of whole fresh milk production was relatively modest.

Imports

World Imports of Milk

After four years of decline, overseas purchases of milk increased by 3.8% to 12M tons in 2022. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 7.1%. Global imports peaked at 12M tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, milk imports expanded sharply to $7.5B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 20%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Germany (2.7M tons), distantly followed by Belgium (1,354K tons), the Netherlands (1,121K tons), Italy (843K tons), China (733K tons), Ireland (641K tons) and Lithuania (576K tons) represented the largest importers of milk, together comprising 68% of total imports. The following importers - the UK (287K tons), Croatia (223K tons) and Romania (219K tons) - each finished at a 6.2% share of total imports.

Imports into Germany increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, China (+24.8%), Croatia (+10.8%), Ireland (+8.0%), Romania (+6.2%), the UK (+6.1%), Belgium (+4.5%), the Netherlands (+4.2%) and Lithuania (+3.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, China emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +24.8% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Italy (-9.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Germany (+6.5 p.p.), China (+5.4 p.p.), Belgium (+3 p.p.), Ireland (+2.5 p.p.) and the Netherlands (+2.3 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of Italy (-15.6 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Germany ($1.5B) constitutes the largest market for imported milk worldwide, comprising 20% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by the Netherlands ($713M), with a 9.5% share of global imports. It was followed by China, with a 9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Germany amounted to +7.6%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Netherlands (+7.4% per year) and China (+24.3% per year).

Imports By Type

Whole fresh milk was the largest type of milk in the world, with the volume of imports recording 10M tons, which was near 88% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by skim milk (1.4M tons), committing a 12% share of total imports.

Whole fresh milk was also the fastest-growing in terms of imports, with a CAGR of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022. skim milk (-1.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Whole fresh milk (+3.3 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while skim milk saw its share reduced by -3.3% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, whole fresh milk ($6.5B) constitutes the largest type of milk imported worldwide, comprising 87% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by skim milk ($962M), with a 13% share of global imports.

For whole fresh milk, imports increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2012-2022.

Import Prices By Type

The average milk import price stood at $634 per ton in 2022, picking up by 7% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.7%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when the average import price increased by 17% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was skim milk ($681 per ton), while the price for whole fresh milk amounted to $628 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by skim milk (+2.9%).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average milk import price amounted to $634 per ton, increasing by 7% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.7%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 an increase of 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was China ($922 per ton), while Belgium ($480 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Lithuania (+3.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Milk

In 2022, global milk exports declined to 11M tons, waning by -2.8% compared with the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, exports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when exports increased by 5.7%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 12M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, milk exports rose markedly to $7B in 2022. In general, exports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when exports increased by 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

The biggest shipments were from Germany (1,426K tons), Belgium (972K tons), the Czech Republic (898K tons), the UK (767K tons), Poland (745K tons), France (590K tons), Austria (542K tons), the Netherlands (516K tons), Latvia (433K tons), Australia (312K tons), Hungary (296K tons) and Slovenia (291K tons), together finishing at 71% of total export. Luxembourg (280K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Australia (with a CAGR of +13.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest milk supplying countries worldwide were Germany ($904M), Belgium ($581M) and the Czech Republic ($487M), with a combined 28% share of global exports. Poland, the UK, France, Austria, the Netherlands, Latvia, Australia, Hungary, Slovenia and Luxembourg lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Poland, with a CAGR of +13.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

In 2022, whole fresh milk (9.6M tons) represented the key type of milk, constituting 88% of total exports. It was distantly followed by skim milk (1.3M tons), mixing up a 12% share of total exports.

Whole fresh milk experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports. Skim milk experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. The shares of the largest types remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, whole fresh milk ($6.2B) remains the largest type of milk supplied worldwide, comprising 89% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by skim milk ($752M), with an 11% share of global exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of whole fresh milk exports was relatively modest.

Export Prices By Type

The average milk export price stood at $638 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average export price increased by 15%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was whole fresh milk ($648 per ton), while the average price for exports of skim milk amounted to $571 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by skim milk (+2.0%).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average milk export price amounted to $638 per ton, with an increase of 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 an increase of 15%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Australia ($657 per ton) and Germany ($634 per ton), while Latvia ($526 per ton) and the Czech Republic ($543 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Latvia (+3.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform