Metal Vehicle Lock Market

The global market for base metal motor vehicle locks is anticipated to maintain a positive consumption trend, with a projected CAGR of +2.7% from 2022 to 2030. China is the top consumer and producer of metal vehicle locks, while the United States leads in imports. The market volume is forecasted to reach 808K tons by 2030, with a value of $14.8B. Overall, the market performance is expected to expand steadily over the next eight years, despite some fluctuations in trend patterns. Key exporting countries include China, Mexico, and Germany, while major importing countries include the United States, Germany, and Japan. Pricing trends indicate some fluctuations, with average export prices dropping slightly in 2022. Overall, the market for base metal motor vehicle locks is dynamic and poised for growth in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for base metal motor vehicle locks worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 808K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $14.8B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Base Metal Motor Vehicle Locks

In 2022, after two years of decline, there was growth in consumption of base metal motor vehicle locks, when its volume increased by 4% to 655K tons. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the maximum volume at 709K tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global metal vehicle lock market revenue totaled $10.7B in 2022, stabilizing at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $11.6B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (183K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of metal vehicle lock consumption, comprising approx. 28% of total volume. Moreover, metal vehicle lock consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (66K tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by the United States (63K tons), with a 9.7% share.

In China, metal vehicle lock consumption increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+2.6% per year) and the United States (+0.6% per year).

In value terms, China ($2B), Japan ($1.1B) and India ($1B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 39% share of the global market. The United States, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Germany, South Korea, Turkey, Spain, the UK and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 35%.

Among the main consuming countries, South Korea, with a CAGR of +10.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of metal vehicle lock per capita consumption in 2022 were South Korea (349 kg per 1000 persons), Spain (313 kg per 1000 persons) and Japan (312 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by South Korea (with a CAGR of +8.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Base Metal Motor Vehicle Locks

In 2022, production of base metal motor vehicle locks increased by 3.6% to 638K tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year declining trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 21% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 685K tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, metal vehicle lock production reached $10.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 27%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $11.3B. From 2017 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of metal vehicle lock production was China (216K tons), comprising approx. 34% of total volume. Moreover, metal vehicle lock production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (71K tons), threefold. Mexico (35K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 5.5% share.

In China, metal vehicle lock production expanded at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+3.5% per year) and Mexico (+0.1% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Base Metal Motor Vehicle Locks

In 2022, supplies from abroad of base metal motor vehicle locks increased by 6.9% to 190K tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. In general, imports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 209K tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, metal vehicle lock imports contracted slightly to $3.1B in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 15%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at $3.7B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

The United States represented the major importing country with an import of around 63K tons, which recorded 33% of total imports. Germany (20K tons) took an 11% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Japan (5.8%). The UK (8K tons), Spain (6.9K tons), Mexico (5.7K tons), China (4.9K tons), Brazil (4.7K tons), France (4.3K tons), Canada (4K tons), Poland (3.6K tons), Turkey (3.5K tons) and the Czech Republic (3.3K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to metal vehicle lock imports into the United States stood at +2.2%. At the same time, Poland (+4.7%), the Czech Republic (+4.4%), the UK (+3.1%) and Brazil (+2.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Poland emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +4.7% from 2012-2022. Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Japan (-1.1%), Spain (-1.2%), Turkey (-3.0%), France (-3.9%), Mexico (-4.8%), China (-5.6%) and Canada (-8.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of the United States increased by +6.5 percentage points. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest metal vehicle lock importing markets worldwide were the United States ($726M), Germany ($383M) and China ($171M), together comprising 42% of global imports. Japan, the UK, Spain, Mexico, France, Turkey, Canada, Brazil, the Czech Republic and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 32%.

Among the main importing countries, the Czech Republic, with a CAGR of +6.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average metal vehicle lock import price amounted to $16,074 per ton, falling by -9.7% against the previous year. Overall, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 an increase of 9.1%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $18,328 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was China ($35,151 per ton), while the United States ($11,571 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+5.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Base Metal Motor Vehicle Locks

In 2022, overseas shipments of base metal motor vehicle locks increased by 5.6% to 174K tons, rising for the second consecutive year after three years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 17%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at 183K tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, metal vehicle lock exports declined slightly to $3.1B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at $3.7B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2022, China (37K tons), distantly followed by Mexico (22K tons), the Czech Republic (14K tons), Spain (13K tons), Germany (12K tons), Romania (8.5K tons) and Canada (8.2K tons) were the largest exporters of base metal motor vehicle locks, together constituting 66% of total exports. India (7.5K tons), Portugal (7.1K tons), Italy (6.1K tons), the United States (5.6K tons), South Korea (5K tons) and Poland (3.8K tons) held a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Romania (with a CAGR of +19.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest metal vehicle lock supplying countries worldwide were China ($449M), Mexico ($415M) and Germany ($395M), with a combined 41% share of global exports. The Czech Republic, Canada, Portugal, Romania, the United States, Spain, Italy, South Korea, India and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 43%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Romania, with a CAGR of +16.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average metal vehicle lock export price stood at $17,871 per ton in 2022, dropping by -6.8% against the previous year. In general, the export price saw a slight reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the average export price increased by 4.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $20,491 per ton in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($32,741 per ton), while Spain ($8,727 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by India (+3.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform