Grape Must Market

The global grape must market is expected to see a continued increase in demand over the next eight years, with consumption projected to reach 5.4B litres by 2030. Market performance is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 0.6% in volume and 2.7% in value from 2022 to 2030. China leads in both consumption and production of grape must, while India leads in market value. Import and export trends show fluctuations in volume and prices, with notable growth rates seen in certain countries like Algeria and Uzbekistan.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for grape must worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 5.4B litres by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $79.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Grape Must

In 2022, the amount of grape must consumed worldwide totaled 5.1B litres, with an increase of 3.3% on the year before. In general, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the consumption volume increased by 8.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 5.2B litres in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global grape must market size surged to $64.4B in 2022, growing by 164% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption continues to indicate a resilient expansion. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $64.6B. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of the global market failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

China (1.3B litres) remains the largest grape must consuming country worldwide, accounting for 25% of total volume. Moreover, grape must consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (513M litres), twofold. The United States (413M litres) ranked third in terms of total consumption with an 8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China totaled +2.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+1.9% per year) and the United States (-1.5% per year).

In value terms, India ($33.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by China ($12.9B). It was followed by the United States.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in India totaled +27.6%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: China (+0.9% per year) and the United States (-1.5% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of grape must per capita consumption in 2022 were Italy (4.5 litres per person), South Korea (2.4 litres per person) and Japan (1.9 litres per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Italy (with a CAGR of +19.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Grape Must

In 2022, approx. 5.1B litres of grape must were produced worldwide; picking up by 2.8% on the previous year. Overall, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 8.6%. Global production peaked at 5.2B litres in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, grape must production reached $26.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the production volume increased by 11%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $27.3B. From 2021 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

China (1.3B litres) remains the largest grape must producing country worldwide, accounting for 25% of total volume. Moreover, grape must production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (513M litres), twofold. The United States (413M litres) ranked third in terms of total production with an 8% share.

In China, grape must production increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+1.9% per year) and the United States (-1.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Grape Must

In 2022, approx. 65M litres of grape must were imported worldwide; with a decrease of -25.6% compared with the year before. Over the period under review, imports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 27% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 89M litres in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, grape must imports contracted markedly to $92M in 2022. In general, imports showed a mild curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when imports increased by 18%. As a result, imports attained the peak of $125M. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

France (16M litres) and Italy (11M litres) were the major importers of grape must in 2022, accounting for near 26% and 17% of total imports, respectively. Portugal (7.3M litres) ranks next in terms of the total imports with an 11% share, followed by Germany (11%) and Slovakia (5.1%). The following importers - the Czech Republic (1.9M litres), Spain (1.7M litres), Algeria (1.7M litres), Switzerland (1.5M litres) and Greece (1.1M litres) - together made up 12% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Algeria (with a CAGR of +58.5%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, France ($24M) constitutes the largest market for imported grape must worldwide, comprising 26% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Italy ($9.6M), with a 10% share of global imports. It was followed by Portugal, with a 9.2% share.

In France, grape must imports expanded at an average annual rate of +13.0% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Italy (-2.5% per year) and Portugal (+6.1% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average grape must import price stood at $1.4 per litre in 2022, picking up by 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, continues to indicate a slight descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the average import price increased by 19% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $1.9 per litre. From 2014 to 2022, the average import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($3.3 per litre), while Slovakia ($0.5 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Portugal (+2.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Grape Must

In 2022, after five years of growth, there was significant decline in shipments abroad of grape must, when their volume decreased by -41.7% to 64M litres. Over the period under review, exports saw a noticeable descent. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 36%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 122M litres. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, grape must exports declined rapidly to $105M in 2022. In general, exports recorded a perceptible descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 24% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $167M in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

Spain represented the largest exporting country with an export of about 31M litres, which accounted for 49% of total exports. Italy (19M litres) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Hungary (4.9M litres). All these countries together took near 37% share of total exports. Uzbekistan (2.9M litres), France (1.8M litres) and Argentina (1.2M litres) held a little share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Uzbekistan (with a CAGR of +33.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest grape must supplying countries worldwide were Spain ($42M), Italy ($41M) and France ($4.8M), with a combined 83% share of global exports. Hungary, Argentina and Uzbekistan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 5.4%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Hungary, with a CAGR of +25.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average grape must export price stood at $1.6 per litre in 2022, growing by 8.6% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.4%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when the average export price increased by 16%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure at $1.9 per litre in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was France ($2.7 per litre), while Uzbekistan ($0.3 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+4.9%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform