Dried Prune Market

The global dried prune market is projected to grow steadily in both volume and value terms. Consumption is expected to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% from 2022 to 2030, reaching 2.5M tons by 2030. Market value is also forecasted to increase with a CAGR of +3.9%, reaching $10.2B by 2030. China leads in both consumption and production, with the largest volume and value in the market. The United States and Romania also play significant roles in consumption. Import and export trends show steady growth, with significant differences in prices amongst major importing and exporting countries.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for dried prunes worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 2.5M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $10.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Dried Prunes

In 2022, the amount of dried prunes consumed worldwide dropped modestly to 2.1M tons, approximately equating the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 8.4%. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 2.1M tons in 2019; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

The global dried prune market size reached $7.5B in 2022, remaining stable against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 5.5% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

China (1.2M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of dried prune consumption, accounting for 54% of total volume. Moreover, dried prune consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (157K tons), sevenfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Romania (55K tons), with a 2.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +1.6%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (+8.6% per year) and Romania (+4.4% per year).

In value terms, China ($4.5B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($591M). It was followed by Italy.

In China, the dried prune market expanded at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+11.4% per year) and Italy (+3.3% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of dried prune per capita consumption was registered in Romania (2,887 kg per 1000 persons), followed by China (818 kg per 1000 persons), Italy (627 kg per 1000 persons) and Iran (589 kg per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of dried prune was estimated at 271 kg per 1000 persons.

In Romania, dried prune per capita consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (+1.1% per year) and Italy (+2.3% per year).

Production

World Production of Dried Prunes

In 2022, the amount of dried prunes produced worldwide shrank modestly to 2.1M tons, remaining stable against 2021 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 7.8%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 2.1M tons in 2019; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In value terms, dried prune production shrank modestly to $7.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when the production volume increased by 6.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak level at $7.4B in 2019; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Production By Country

China (1.1M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of dried prune production, accounting for 54% of total volume. Moreover, dried prune production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (189K tons), sixfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Chile (73K tons), with a 3.4% share.

In China, dried prune production increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the United States (+3.2% per year) and Chile (-0.9% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Dried Prunes

Global dried prune imports rose sharply to 202K tons in 2022, increasing by 8.3% against 2021 figures. In general, imports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when imports increased by 11%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at 229K tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, dried prune imports skyrocketed to $711M in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, China (23K tons), followed by Brazil (13K tons), Russia (11K tons), Germany (10K tons) and Italy (9.1K tons) were the main importers of dried prunes, together creating 33% of total imports. The following importers - Japan (9K tons), the UK (8.7K tons), Spain (8.2K tons), Poland (8K tons), Mexico (6.2K tons), Algeria (6K tons), the United States (5.7K tons) and the Netherlands (5.6K tons) - together made up 28% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +23.6%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($53M), Germany ($49M) and Italy ($46M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 21% of global imports. The UK, Japan, Russia, Spain, Poland, Brazil, the Netherlands, Mexico, the United States and Algeria lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 42%.

Among the main importing countries, the United States, with a CAGR of +30.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average dried prune import price stood at $3,512 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 14% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +4.5%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the average import price increased by 21% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($5,002 per ton), while China ($2,289 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+8.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Dried Prunes

In 2022, global dried prune exports amounted to 196K tons, picking up by 7% against the year before. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed a mild descent. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when exports increased by 11% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 228K tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, dried prune exports skyrocketed to $675M in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 22%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Chile (64K tons), distantly followed by the United States (38K tons), Uzbekistan (14K tons), Argentina (14K tons), France (11K tons) and Spain (9.4K tons) were the key exporters of dried prunes, together committing 77% of total exports. The following exporters - Moldova (8.3K tons), Serbia (5.6K tons), Iran (4.9K tons) and the Netherlands (3.8K tons) - together made up 11% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Moldova (with a CAGR of +26.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest dried prune supplying countries worldwide were Chile ($257M), the United States ($170M) and France ($45M), together accounting for 70% of global exports. Argentina, Serbia, the Netherlands, Uzbekistan, Spain, Moldova and Iran lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 19%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Moldova, with a CAGR of +27.2%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average dried prune export price stood at $3,440 per ton in 2022, rising by 7.7% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +4.5%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 26%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($5,207 per ton), while Iran ($666 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Chile (+8.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform