Dairy Produce Market

The global dairy produce market is forecasted to maintain growth, with an expected increase in volume and value from 2022 to 2030. Consumption trends show fluctuations over the years, with notable growth in countries like India. Whole fresh milk dominates both consumption and production, while cheese leads in terms of market value. Imports and exports of dairy products have seen steady growth, with significant differences in average prices amongst countries. Key players include Germany, India, and the United States in consumption; New Zealand, Germany, and the Netherlands in production; and Germany, New Zealand, and the Netherlands in exports.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for dairy produce worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1,353M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $1,663.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Dairy

In 2022, consumption of dairy produce decreased by -0.1% to 1,152M tons, falling for the second year in a row after nine years of growth. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. Global consumption peaked at 1,157M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global dairy produce market value expanded to $1,284.1B in 2022, picking up by 2.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the market value increased by 7.2% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at $1,308.4B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were India (219M tons), the United States (135M tons) and Pakistan (62M tons), with a combined 36% share of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +4.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($180.9B), the United States ($175.5B) and Turkey ($48.6B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 32% share of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, India, with a CAGR of +6.0%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of dairy produce per capita consumption was registered in New Zealand (6,020 kg per person), followed by the Netherlands (1,118 kg per person), Germany (620 kg per person) and France (578 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of dairy produce was estimated at 2 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the dairy produce per capita consumption in New Zealand was relatively modest. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: the Netherlands (+1.5% per year) and Germany (+0.3% per year).

Consumption By Type

Whole fresh milk (917M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption, accounting for 80% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk (135M tons), sevenfold. The third position in this ranking was held by yoghurt and fermented milk (49M tons), with a 4.2% share.

For whole fresh milk, consumption increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012-2022. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: skim milk (+0.4% per year) and yoghurt and fermented milk (+1.1% per year).

In value terms, whole fresh milk ($732.7B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by cheese ($195.2B). It was followed by skim milk.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of whole fresh milk market amounted to +1.8%. With regard to the other consumed products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: cheese (+2.7% per year) and skim milk (+1.2% per year).

Production

World Production of Dairy

In 2022, production of dairy produce decreased by -0.2% to 1,151M tons, falling for the second year in a row after nine years of growth. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the production volume increased by 3.2% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 1,156M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, dairy produce production totaled $1,095.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 6.3%. Global production peaked at $1,120.9B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were India (219M tons), the United States (136M tons) and Pakistan (62M tons), with a combined 36% share of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +4.7%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production By Type

Whole fresh milk (916M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of production, comprising approx. 80% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, skim milk (135M tons), sevenfold. The third position in this ranking was held by yoghurt and fermented milk (49M tons), with a 4.2% share.

For whole fresh milk, production increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012-2022. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: skim milk (+0.4% per year) and yoghurt and fermented milk (+1.1% per year).

In value terms, whole fresh milk ($720.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by cheese ($175.1B). It was followed by skim milk.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of whole fresh milk production was relatively modest. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: cheese (+1.8% per year) and skim milk (-1.9% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Dairy

Global dairy produce imports was estimated at 35M tons in 2022, standing approx. at 2021. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when imports increased by 4.8% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, dairy produce imports expanded rapidly to $97.6B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Germany (4.4M tons), followed by Belgium (2.5M tons), the Netherlands (2.5M tons), China (2.4M tons) and Italy (1.9M tons) represented the largest importers of dairy produce, together comprising 40% of total imports. The following importers - France (1,245K tons), the UK (1,122K tons), Ireland (868K tons), Spain (781K tons), the United Arab Emirates (761K tons), Lithuania (636K tons), Algeria (546K tons) and Saudi Arabia (541K tons) - together made up 19% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +12.0%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($9.5B), China ($7.9B) and France ($5.6B) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 24% of global imports.

Among the main importing countries, China, with a CAGR of +12.4%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

The imports of the three major types of dairy produce, namely whole fresh milk, cheese and powdered milk, represented more than two-thirds of total import. Yoghurt and fermented milk (3.1M tons) held a 9% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by evaporated and condensed milk (6%) and cream fresh (5%). Butter and dairy spreads (1.5M tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key imported products, was attained by cream fresh (with a CAGR of +5.2%), while imports for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, cheese ($41.5B), powdered milk ($23.7B) and butter and dairy spreads ($9.5B) were the products with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 76% share of global imports. Whole fresh milk, yoghurt and fermented milk, cream fresh, evaporated and condensed milk, ghee and skim milk lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 24%.

Cream fresh, with a CAGR of +8.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main imported products over the period under review, while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Type

The average dairy produce import price stood at $2,814 per ton in 2022, surging by 11% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.6%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was ghee ($6,905 per ton), while the price for whole fresh milk ($628 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by ghee (+5.2%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average dairy produce import price amounted to $2,814 per ton, picking up by 11% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.6%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the average import price increased by 13% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was France ($4,471 per ton), while Lithuania ($832 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+6.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Dairy

In 2022, the amount of dairy produce exported worldwide shrank slightly to 34M tons, leveling off at the year before. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 4.2%. The global exports peaked at 34M tons in 2021, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

In value terms, dairy produce exports rose remarkably to $98.2B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Germany (4.4M tons), New Zealand (3M tons), the Netherlands (2.8M tons), Belgium (2.3M tons), France (2.3M tons), the United States (1.6M tons), Poland (1.5M tons), the UK (1.2M tons), the Czech Republic (1.1M tons), Ireland (1M tons), Austria (0.9M tons) and Denmark (0.9M tons) was the key exporter of dairy produce in the world, creating 68% of total export. Belarus (883K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Poland (with a CAGR of +7.5%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest dairy produce supplying countries worldwide were New Zealand ($12.4B), Germany ($11.8B) and the Netherlands ($10.8B), together accounting for 36% of global exports. France, the United States, Belgium, Ireland, Poland, Denmark, Belarus, the UK, Austria and the Czech Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 37%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Ireland, with a CAGR of +8.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

In 2022, whole fresh milk (9.6M tons), cheese (7.8M tons) and powdered milk (5.9M tons) represented the major type of dairy produce in the world, achieving 70% of total export. Yoghurt and fermented milk (3.3M tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by evaporated and condensed milk (1.8M tons), cream fresh (1.7M tons) and butter and dairy spreads (1.6M tons). All these products together took approx. 25% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for cream fresh (with a CAGR of +3.3%), while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest types of exported dairy produce were cheese ($42.7B), powdered milk ($23.7B) and butter and dairy spreads ($10.1B), together comprising 77% of global exports. Whole fresh milk, yoghurt and fermented milk, cream fresh, evaporated and condensed milk, ghee and skim milk lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

Among the main exported products, cream fresh, with a CAGR of +7.7%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average dairy produce export price amounted to $2,931 per ton, surging by 15% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.4%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the average export price increased by 17% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was ghee ($6,762 per ton), while the average price for exports of skim milk ($571 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by ghee (+5.7%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average dairy produce export price stood at $2,931 per ton in 2022, rising by 15% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.4%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the average export price increased by 17%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Ireland ($4,252 per ton), while the Czech Republic ($1,031 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Austria (+4.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform