Crude Palm Oil Market

The global market for crude palm oil is expected to witness steady growth in volume and value from 2022 to 2030, with a projected increase in consumption to 110M tons and market value to $94.2B. Indonesia leads in both consumption and production, followed by Malaysia and India. The market is driven by increasing demand worldwide. Global imports are dominated by India, with significant growth seen in Kenya and Saudi Arabia. Malaysia and Indonesia are major exporters, with Thailand showing rapid growth. Price trends indicate fluctuations, with Colombia having the highest export price and Honduras the lowest. Overall, the crude palm oil market is expected to see continued growth in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for crude palm oil worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +4.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 110M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +6.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $94.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Crude Palm Oil

In 2022, global crude palm oil consumption contracted slightly to 78M tons, waning by -3.3% against 2021 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the maximum volume at 82M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global crude palm oil market revenue totaled $55.9B in 2022, surging by 2.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Consumption By Country

Indonesia (42M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of crude palm oil consumption, comprising approx. 53% of total volume. Moreover, crude palm oil consumption in Indonesia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Malaysia (16M tons), threefold. India (6.6M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with an 8.5% share.

In Indonesia, crude palm oil consumption increased at an average annual rate of +8.4% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Malaysia (+0.6% per year) and India (+0.9% per year).

In value terms, Indonesia ($26.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Malaysia ($9.8B). It was followed by India.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Indonesia totaled +5.1%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Malaysia (-2.8% per year) and India (+1.7% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of crude palm oil per capita consumption was registered in Malaysia (473 kg per person), followed by Indonesia (150 kg per person), Thailand (27 kg per person) and Colombia (23 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of crude palm oil was estimated at 0.1 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the crude palm oil per capita consumption in Malaysia was relatively modest. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Indonesia (+7.1% per year) and Thailand (+1.6% per year).

Production

World Production of Crude Palm Oil

In 2022, global production of crude palm oil reduced to 77M tons, leveling off at the previous year's figure. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 19%. Global production peaked at 79M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, crude palm oil production amounted to $47.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 28% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $50B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

Indonesia (45M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of crude palm oil production, comprising approx. 59% of total volume. Moreover, crude palm oil production in Indonesia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Malaysia (19M tons), twofold. Thailand (2.8M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 3.6% share.

In Indonesia, crude palm oil production increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Malaysia (+0.3% per year) and Thailand (+4.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Crude Palm Oil

In 2022, purchases abroad of crude palm oil decreased by -9.2% to 13M tons, falling for the third consecutive year after three years of growth. Over the period under review, imports showed a slight curtailment. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at 17M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, crude palm oil imports totaled $16.7B in 2022. In general, imports, however, saw a modest increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 33%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

India prevails in imports structure, reaching 6.6M tons, which was approx. 50% of total imports in 2022. The Netherlands (1,297K tons) held a 9.8% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Kenya (5.3%). Saudi Arabia (468K tons), Germany (454K tons), Italy (448K tons), Spain (434K tons), Uganda (276K tons) and Mozambique (256K tons) took a minor share of total imports.

India experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports of crude palm oil. At the same time, Kenya (+28.3%), Mozambique (+18.3%), Uganda (+11.6%) and Saudi Arabia (+8.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Kenya emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +28.3% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Spain (-1.2%), Italy (-4.5%), the Netherlands (-5.6%) and Germany (-6.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of India (+8.9 p.p.), Kenya (+4.9 p.p.), Saudi Arabia (+2.1 p.p.) and Mozambique (+1.6 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of Germany (-2.5 p.p.) and the Netherlands (-5.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, India ($8.5B) constitutes the largest market for imported crude palm oil worldwide, comprising 51% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by the Netherlands ($1.7B), with a 10% share of global imports. It was followed by Kenya, with a 5.8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in India totaled +3.2%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: the Netherlands (-3.5% per year) and Kenya (+33.0% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average crude palm oil import price amounted to $1,265 per ton, growing by 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated a pronounced increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, crude palm oil import price increased by +115.2% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 54% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Kenya ($1,375 per ton), while Uganda ($895 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mozambique (+7.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Crude Palm Oil

In 2022, global exports of crude palm oil totaled 11M tons, with an increase of 3.8% against 2021. In general, exports, however, recorded a pronounced setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 23% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 16M tons. From 2016 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, crude palm oil exports expanded rapidly to $12.7B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 with an increase of 36% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at $13.1B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Malaysia (3.8M tons) and Indonesia (3.5M tons) represented the major exporters of crude palm oilin the world, together creating 63% of total exports. Thailand (888K tons) held a 7.7% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Guatemala (6.6%) and Papua New Guinea (5.5%). The following exporters - Honduras (367K tons) and Colombia (359K tons) - each amounted to a 6.3% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Thailand (with a CAGR of +15.1%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest crude palm oil supplying countries worldwide were Malaysia ($4.5B), Indonesia ($3.4B) and Thailand ($1.1B), with a combined 71% share of global exports.

Thailand, with a CAGR of +18.2%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average crude palm oil export price stood at $1,104 per ton in 2022, increasing by 5.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price saw modest growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 58% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Colombia ($1,497 per ton), while Honduras ($840 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Colombia (+3.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform