Cotton (Carded Or Combed) Market

The article discusses the current trends and future projections of the global market for cotton (carded or combed). Consumption is expected to increase with a forecasted CAGR of +1.5% in volume and +3.5% in value from 2022 to 2030, reaching 1.5M tons and $7.2B respectively. The largest consuming country is the United States, while Mali shows the highest growth rates. Production, imports, and exports are also analyzed, with Mali leading in exports and Vietnam in imports. Price trends and fluctuations are outlined in detail, providing a comprehensive overview of the global cotton market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cotton (carded or combed) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.5M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $7.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cotton (Carded Or Combed)

After three years of growth, consumption of cotton (carded or combed) decreased by -4.9% to 1.3M tons in 2022. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 9.3% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at 1.4M tons in 2021, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

The global cotton (carded or combed) market revenue dropped to $5.4B in 2022, declining by -5.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level at $5.8B in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The United States (561K tons) remains the largest cotton (carded or combed) consuming country worldwide, accounting for 42% of total volume. Moreover, cotton (carded or combed) consumption in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Mali (215K tons), threefold. Turkey (164K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 12% share.

In the United States, cotton (carded or combed) consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Mali (+21.2% per year) and Turkey (-0.6% per year).

In value terms, the largest cotton (carded or combed) markets worldwide were Turkey ($2.1B), the United States ($2B) and Mali ($500M), together comprising 84% of the global market.

Mali, with a CAGR of +25.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of cotton (carded or combed) per capita consumption was registered in Mali (10 kg per person), followed by Turkey (1.9 kg per person), the United States (1.7 kg per person) and Burkina Faso (1 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of cotton (carded or combed) was estimated at less than 0.1 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the cotton (carded or combed) per capita consumption in Mali stood at +17.7%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Turkey (-1.9% per year) and the United States (-0.5% per year).

Production

World Production of Cotton (Carded Or Combed)

In 2022, after four years of growth, there was decline in production of cotton (carded or combed), when its volume decreased by -2.4% to 1.5M tons. In general, production, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 7.8%. Global production peaked at 1.6M tons in 2021, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

In value terms, cotton (carded or combed) production dropped to $5.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a moderate expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +13.0% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 42%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $8.8B. From 2020 to 2022, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (569K tons), Mali (382K tons) and Turkey (166K tons), with a combined 73% share of global production. India, Tanzania, Uganda, Pakistan, Mozambique, Spain and Burkina Faso lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 16%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Uganda (with a CAGR of +2.8%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Cotton (Carded Or Combed)

In 2022, the amount of cotton (carded or combed) imported worldwide dropped rapidly to 126K tons, which is down by -22.5% against the previous year's figure. In general, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 28% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at 162K tons in 2021, and then contracted remarkably in the following year.

In value terms, cotton (carded or combed) imports reduced to $239M in 2022. Overall, imports saw a slight descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 24% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at $290M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

Vietnam was the main importer of cotton (carded or combed) in the world, with the volume of imports reaching 48K tons, which was approx. 38% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Taiwan (Chinese) (14K tons), Spain (10K tons), China (8.9K tons) and Bangladesh (6.8K tons), together comprising a 32% share of total imports. France (5.6K tons), Poland (5.2K tons), Germany (3.3K tons), Mexico (2.5K tons) and Nepal (2.1K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to cotton (carded or combed) imports into Vietnam stood at +17.1%. At the same time, China (+48.3%), Nepal (+46.8%), Germany (+9.0%), Taiwan (Chinese) (+7.5%), Mexico (+6.4%) and France (+3.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, China emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +48.3% from 2012-2022. Poland experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Spain (-3.4%) and Bangladesh (-5.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Vietnam, China, Taiwan (Chinese), Nepal and Germany increased by +31, +7, +6.2, +1.6 and +1.6 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Vietnam ($64M) constitutes the largest market for imported cotton (carded or combed) worldwide, comprising 27% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Taiwan (Chinese) ($23M), with a 9.7% share of global imports. It was followed by France, with a 7.5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Vietnam stood at +12.6%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Taiwan (Chinese) (+8.4% per year) and France (+5.1% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average cotton (carded or combed) import price amounted to $1,906 per ton, rising by 21% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, recorded a mild shrinkage. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $2,153 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was France ($3,235 per ton), while Nepal ($519 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+2.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Cotton (Carded Or Combed)

Global cotton (carded or combed) exports contracted to 316K tons in 2022, stabilizing at the previous year's figure. In general, exports recorded a noticeable setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when exports increased by 87%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure at 427K tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, cotton (carded or combed) exports totaled $811M in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw a modest expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 100%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Mali (167K tons) was the major exporter of cotton (carded or combed), constituting 53% of total exports. India (40K tons) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Tanzania (17K tons). All these countries together held approx. 18% share of total exports. Uganda (11K tons), Mozambique (11K tons), the United States (8.6K tons), Indonesia (8.3K tons), South Korea (6.1K tons), Afghanistan (5.2K tons) and the Netherlands (5.1K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to cotton (carded or combed) exports from Mali stood at -4.8%. At the same time, Afghanistan (+66.6%), India (+62.7%), the Netherlands (+40.7%), Uganda (+36.5%) and Indonesia (+4.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Afghanistan emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +66.6% from 2012-2022. By contrast, South Korea (-2.3%), Tanzania (-5.6%), the United States (-5.9%) and Mozambique (-6.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. India (+13 p.p.), Uganda (+3.4 p.p.), Afghanistan (+1.7 p.p.) and the Netherlands (+1.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Tanzania and Mali saw its share reduced by -1.7% and -10.9% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Mali ($508M) remains the largest cotton (carded or combed) supplier worldwide, comprising 63% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by India ($52M), with a 6.5% share of global exports. It was followed by Tanzania, with a 5.4% share.

In Mali, cotton (carded or combed) exports increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: India (+56.3% per year) and Tanzania (+1.9% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average cotton (carded or combed) export price stood at $2,566 per ton in 2022, rising by 3.8% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a measured increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, cotton (carded or combed) export price increased by +67.4% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 an increase of 27% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($4,254 per ton), while Afghanistan ($972 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mali (+8.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform