Cotton Lint Market

The global market for cotton lint is expected to see steady growth in both volume and value over the period from 2022 to 2030, with consumption and production trends analyzed in detail. Key importing and exporting countries, as well as growth rates in per capita consumption and yield, are also examined. Overall, the market is forecasted to experience positive growth in the coming years, driven by rising demand worldwide.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for cotton lint worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +4.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 97M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $237.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cotton Lint

In 2022, approx. 71M tons of cotton lint were consumed worldwide; dropping by -29% compared with 2021 figures. In general, consumption showed a perceptible slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 9.9%. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 107M tons. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global cotton lint market value declined dramatically to $161.6B in 2022, waning by -19.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption saw a pronounced decline. Global consumption peaked at $209.3B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (20M tons), India (15M tons) and the United States (5.1M tons), together accounting for 57% of global consumption. Brazil, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Australia, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Turkmenistan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Vietnam (with a CAGR of +11.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest cotton lint markets worldwide were China ($45B), India ($38.2B) and the United States ($13B), with a combined 60% share of the global market. Brazil, Pakistan, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Turkmenistan and Australia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 28%.

Vietnam, with a CAGR of +12.7%, saw the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of cotton lint per capita consumption in 2022 were Turkmenistan (191 kg per person), Uzbekistan (100 kg per person) and Australia (64 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Vietnam (with a CAGR of +10.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Cotton Lint

Global cotton lint production fell significantly to 71M tons in 2022, dropping by -28.8% against 2021. Over the period under review, production recorded a perceptible reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 9.6%. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 108M tons. From 2020 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum. The general negative trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a pronounced reduction of the harvested area and a perceptible contraction in yield figures.

In value terms, cotton lint production declined to $175.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production saw a mild reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 42%. Global production peaked at $212B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (18M tons), India (15M tons) and the United States (8.5M tons), together comprising 59% of global production. Brazil, Uzbekistan, Australia, Turkey, Pakistan, Greece, Turkmenistan and Argentina lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 30%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Turkmenistan (with a CAGR of +4.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

In 2022, the global average cotton lint yield declined sharply to 2.2 tons per ha, waning by -26.7% against 2021. Over the period under review, the yield recorded a perceptible decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 8.2% against the previous year. The global yield peaked at 3.2 tons per ha in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the yield failed to regain momentum.

Harvested Area

The global cotton lint harvested area reduced to 32M ha in 2022, which is down by -2.8% on the previous year's figure. Overall, the harvested area continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the harvested area increased by 15%. As a result, the harvested area attained the peak level of 35M ha. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of the global cotton lint harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Imports

World Imports of Cotton Lint

In 2022, the amount of cotton lint imported worldwide contracted to 8.6M tons, with a decrease of -9.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports saw a slight downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 17%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure at 10M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, cotton lint imports skyrocketed to $22.9B in 2022. Overall, imports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 34%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, China (1.9M tons), distantly followed by Vietnam (1,248K tons), Bangladesh (1,212K tons), Turkey (1,148K tons), Pakistan (783K tons), Indonesia (491K tons) and India (390K tons) represented the key importers of cotton lint, together committing 84% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Pakistan (with a CAGR of +12.4%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest cotton lint importing markets worldwide were China ($5.2B), Turkey ($3.2B) and Vietnam ($3.1B), with a combined 50% share of global imports.

In terms of the main importing countries, Vietnam, with a CAGR of +13.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average cotton lint import price amounted to $2,672 per ton, with an increase of 35% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated mild growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, cotton lint import price increased by +65.9% against 2020 indices. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was India ($3,724 per ton), while Bangladesh ($2,392 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by India (+6.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Cotton Lint

After five years of growth, shipments abroad of cotton lint decreased by -7.3% to 9M tons in 2022. In general, exports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at 9.8M tons in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

In value terms, cotton lint exports skyrocketed to $21.8B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a slight increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +49.6% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 31%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

In 2022, the United States (3.4M tons) was the key exporter of cotton lint, making up 38% of total exports. Brazil (1.8M tons) held the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Australia (1,116K tons) and India (427K tons). All these countries together held approx. 37% share of total exports. Benin (321K tons), Greece (268K tons), Burkina Faso (268K tons), Cote d'Ivoire (220K tons), Sudan (151K tons) and Turkey (148K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Sudan (with a CAGR of +42.2%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($8.9B) remains the largest cotton lint supplier worldwide, comprising 41% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Brazil ($3.7B), with a 17% share of global exports. It was followed by Australia, with a 14% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the United States stood at +3.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Brazil (+5.7% per year) and Australia (+1.1% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average cotton lint export price stood at $2,415 per ton in 2022, picking up by 28% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.6%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was India ($2,816 per ton), while Cote d'Ivoire ($1,703 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by India (+4.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform