Corn Flakes And Cereal Products Market

The global market for cereal grain products, including corn flakes, is expected to see continued growth over the next eight years, with market performance forecasted to expand at an average CAGR of +3.4% in volume and +5.6% in value from 2022 to 2030. The article provides detailed insights into consumption trends, production, exports, and imports of cereal grain products worldwide. Key highlights include the largest consuming and exporting countries, trends in production, and fluctuations in prices over the years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cereal grain products (including corn flakes) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 56M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $117.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cereal Grain Products (Including Corn Flakes)

Global corn flakes and cereal products consumption reached 43M tons in 2022, picking up by 2.5% compared with 2021. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a perceptible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -1.8% against 2020 indices. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 44M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The size of the market for cereal grain products (including corn flakes) worldwide rose slightly to $76.2B in 2022, with an increase of 4.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total consumption indicated a strong increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -2.0% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 9.8%. Global consumption peaked at $77.8B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (5.5M tons), India (4.6M tons) and the United States (2.9M tons), together accounting for 31% of global consumption. Brazil, Mexico, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, the UK, Indonesia, Germany, Ethiopia and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 28%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Nigeria (with a CAGR of +9.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest corn flakes and cereal products markets worldwide were China ($10.9B), Mexico ($5.7B) and the United States ($5.3B), with a combined 29% share of the global market. India, the UK, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Brazil, Germany and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.

Among the main consuming countries, Nigeria, with a CAGR of +11.4%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of corn flakes and cereal products per capita consumption in 2022 were the UK (16 kg per person), Mexico (13 kg per person) and Italy (11 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +7.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Cereal Grain Products (Including Corn Flakes)

Global corn flakes and cereal products production rose modestly to 43M tons in 2022, surging by 2.6% compared with 2021. Over the period under review, the total production indicated perceptible growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -1.7% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when the production volume increased by 13% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 44M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, corn flakes and cereal products production totaled $71B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated a prominent increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -14.5% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 20%. Global production peaked at $83B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (5.5M tons), India (4.7M tons) and the United States (2.4M tons), together accounting for 29% of global production. Brazil, Mexico, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, the UK, Turkey, Indonesia, Germany and Argentina lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Nigeria (with a CAGR of +9.5%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Cereal Grain Products (Including Corn Flakes)

In 2022, global corn flakes and cereal products imports stood at 6.8M tons, approximately equating the previous year's figure. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, corn flakes and cereal products imports rose notably to $10.6B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (922K tons), distantly followed by the Netherlands (411K tons), Uruguay (374K tons) and Germany (338K tons) represented the key importers of cereal grain products (including corn flakes), together making up 30% of total imports. Canada (254K tons), France (234K tons), Belgium (232K tons), Italy (214K tons), China (208K tons), the UK (187K tons), Chile (184K tons), Turkey (149K tons) and Mexico (137K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to corn flakes and cereal products imports into the United States stood at +7.8%. At the same time, China (+28.0%), Uruguay (+18.3%), Turkey (+8.9%), Germany (+4.2%), France (+3.0%), Italy (+2.8%), the Netherlands (+2.2%), Belgium (+2.1%) and Canada (+1.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, China emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +28.0% from 2012-2022. The UK experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Mexico (-3.1%) and Chile (-3.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of the United States (+4.2 p.p.), Uruguay (+4 p.p.) and China (+2.7 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of the UK (-1.7 p.p.), Mexico (-2 p.p.) and Chile (-2.8 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($1.5B) constitutes the largest market for imported cereal grain products (including corn flakes) worldwide, comprising 14% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Canada ($662M), with a 6.2% share of global imports. It was followed by Germany, with a 5.8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in the United States stood at +7.2%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Canada (+3.0% per year) and Germany (+6.9% per year).

Imports By Type

Cereal grains otherwise worked (eg hulled, rolled, flaked, pearled, sliced or kibbled) except rice of heading no. 1006; germ of cereals whole, rolled, flaked or ground represented the largest type of cereal grain products (including corn flakes) in the world, with the volume of imports resulting at 4M tons, which was approx. 59% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by prepared foods obtained by swelling, roasting of cereals or cereal products (eg corn flakes); cereals, other than maize (corn), in grain form, pre-cooked or otherwise prepared (2.8M tons), making up a 41% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main imported products, was attained by cereal grains otherwise worked (eg hulled, rolled, flaked, pearled, sliced or kibbled) except rice of heading no. 1006; germ of cereals whole, rolled, flaked or ground (with a CAGR of +4.5%).

In value terms, prepared foods obtained by swelling, roasting of cereals or cereal products (eg corn flakes); cereals, other than maize (corn), in grain form, pre-cooked or otherwise prepared ($7.8B) constitutes the largest type of cereal grain products (including corn flakes) imported worldwide, comprising 73% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by cereal grains otherwise worked (eg hulled, rolled, flaked, pearled, sliced or kibbled) except rice of heading no. 1006; germ of cereals whole, rolled, flaked or ground ($2.8B), with a 27% share of global imports.

For prepared foods obtained by swelling, roasting of cereals or cereal products (eg corn flakes); cereals, other than maize (corn), in grain form, pre-cooked or otherwise prepared, imports expanded at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2012-2022.

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average import price for cereal grain products (including corn flakes) amounted to $1,557 per ton, surging by 8.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 an increase of 8.5%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $1,622 per ton; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was prepared foods obtained by swelling, roasting of cereals or cereal products (eg corn flakes); cereals, other than maize (corn), in grain form, pre-cooked or otherwise prepared ($2,782 per ton), while the price for cereal grains otherwise worked (eg hulled, rolled, flaked, pearled, sliced or kibbled) except rice of heading no. 1006; germ of cereals whole, rolled, flaked or ground totaled $702 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by cereal grains otherwise worked (eg hulled, rolled, flaked, pearled, sliced or kibbled) except rice of heading no. 1006; germ of cereals whole, rolled, flaked or ground (+2.0%).

Import Prices By Country

The average import price for cereal grain products (including corn flakes) stood at $1,557 per ton in 2022, growing by 8.2% against the previous year. Overall, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the average import price increased by 8.5% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $1,622 per ton; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($2,606 per ton), while Uruguay ($269 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+4.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Cereal Grain Products (Including Corn Flakes)

In 2022, approx. 6.8M tons of cereal grain products (including corn flakes) were exported worldwide; almost unchanged from the previous year's figure. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when exports increased by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, corn flakes and cereal products exports stood at $10.6B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when exports increased by 9.6%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

The shipments of the twelve major exporters of cereal grain products (including corn flakes), namely Canada, Turkey, Argentina, Germany, the United States, Belgium, the UK, Chile, France, Australia, Poland and the Netherlands, represented more than half of total export. Russia (212K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +11.8%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($971M), the United States ($906M) and Canada ($906M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 26% of global exports. The UK, Belgium, Poland, France, the Netherlands, Turkey, Australia, Chile, Russia and Argentina lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 35%.

Russia, with a CAGR of +11.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Cereal grains otherwise worked (eg hulled, rolled, flaked, pearled, sliced or kibbled) except rice of heading no. 1006; germ of cereals whole, rolled, flaked or ground was the key exported product with an export of around 3.9M tons, which finished at 58% of total exports. It was distantly followed by prepared foods obtained by swelling, roasting of cereals or cereal products (eg corn flakes); cereals, other than maize (corn), in grain form, pre-cooked or otherwise prepared (2.9M tons), generating a 42% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for cereal grains otherwise worked (eg hulled, rolled, flaked, pearled, sliced or kibbled) except rice of heading no. 1006; germ of cereals whole, rolled, flaked or ground (with a CAGR of +4.4%).

In value terms, prepared foods obtained by swelling, roasting of cereals or cereal products (eg corn flakes); cereals, other than maize (corn), in grain form, pre-cooked or otherwise prepared ($8.1B) remains the largest type of cereal grain products (including corn flakes) supplied worldwide, comprising 76% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by cereal grains otherwise worked (eg hulled, rolled, flaked, pearled, sliced or kibbled) except rice of heading no. 1006; germ of cereals whole, rolled, flaked or ground ($2.6B), with a 24% share of global exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of prepared foods obtained by swelling, roasting of cereals or cereal products (eg corn flakes); cereals, other than maize (corn), in grain form, pre-cooked or otherwise prepared exports totaled +3.6%.

Export Prices By Type

The average export price for cereal grain products (including corn flakes) stood at $1,566 per ton in 2022, surging by 7.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price recorded a modest increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the average export price increased by 11% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $1,583 per ton; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was prepared foods obtained by swelling, roasting of cereals or cereal products (eg corn flakes); cereals, other than maize (corn), in grain form, pre-cooked or otherwise prepared ($2,822 per ton), while the average price for exports of cereal grains otherwise worked (eg hulled, rolled, flaked, pearled, sliced or kibbled) except rice of heading no. 1006; germ of cereals whole, rolled, flaked or ground amounted to $651 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by cereal grains otherwise worked (eg hulled, rolled, flaked, pearled, sliced or kibbled) except rice of heading no. 1006; germ of cereals whole, rolled, flaked or ground (+2.0%).

Export Prices By Country

The average export price for cereal grain products (including corn flakes) stood at $1,566 per ton in 2022, picking up by 7.1% against the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate mild growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 an increase of 11% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $1,583 per ton; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($2,832 per ton), while Argentina ($233 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+6.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform