Carob Market

The global carob market is forecasted to grow steadily over the next eight years, with consumption volume and market value expected to increase at an anticipated CAGR of +1.2%. In 2022, global carob consumption reached 178K tons, with Italy, Portugal, and Turkey being the top consuming countries. Global carob production expanded modestly to 183K tons in the same year, with Portugal, Italy, and Turkey leading production. Carob imports soared to $92M in 2022, while exports dropped to $199M in the same year. Morocco remains the largest supplier of carob worldwide, with an average annual growth rate of +25.7% in value terms.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for carob worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 197K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $523M (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Carob

In 2022, the amount of carob consumed worldwide soared to 178K tons, with an increase of 16% compared with 2021. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at 189K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global carob market value surged to $475M in 2022, picking up by 16% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total consumption indicated a notable increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +217.0% against 2020 indices. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Italy (42K tons), Portugal (39K tons) and Turkey (24K tons), together comprising 59% of global consumption. Morocco, Greece, Cyprus, Lebanon, Spain and Switzerland lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 28%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Cyprus (with a CAGR of +10.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Morocco ($155M) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Italy ($39M). It was followed by Turkey.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Morocco amounted to +5.5%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Italy (+3.4% per year) and Turkey (+8.2% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of carob per capita consumption in 2022 were Cyprus (4.7 kg per person), Portugal (3.8 kg per person) and Greece (1.2 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Cyprus (with a CAGR of +9.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Carob

Global carob production expanded modestly to 183K tons in 2022, surging by 4.1% compared with 2021. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 15% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 187K tons. From 2015 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a temperate increase of the harvested area and noticeable growth in yield figures.

In value terms, carob production reduced dramatically to $542M in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production saw a prominent expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when the production volume increased by 122%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $898M. From 2020 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Portugal (51K tons), Italy (28K tons) and Turkey (25K tons), with a combined 57% share of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Turkey (with a CAGR of +5.9%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The global average carob yield was estimated at 4.8 tons per ha in 2022, growing by 1.8% against 2021 figures. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the yield increased by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average carob yield attained the peak level in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Harvested Area

The global carob harvested area rose to 38K ha in 2022, surging by 2.3% on 2021 figures. In general, the harvested area, however, saw a slight shrinkage. The global harvested area peaked at 43K ha in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports

World Imports of Carob

In 2022, after two years of decline, there was significant growth in supplies from abroad of carob, when their volume increased by 46% to 57K tons. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, carob imports soared to $92M in 2022. In general, imports recorded a strong increase. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Italy (16K tons), distantly followed by Morocco (8.4K tons), Spain (6.6K tons), Switzerland (3.2K tons) and the Netherlands (2.9K tons) represented the major importers of carob, together creating 66% of total imports. Algeria (2.5K tons), France (2.4K tons), Belgium (2.4K tons), Turkey (2.1K tons), Germany (1.6K tons), the United States (1.5K tons) and Egypt (1.3K tons) took a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Morocco (with a CAGR of +62.2%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Switzerland ($46M) constitutes the largest market for imported carob worldwide, comprising 50% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Morocco ($20M), with a 22% share of global imports. It was followed by Italy, with a 5.1% share.

In Switzerland, carob imports increased at an average annual rate of +26.9% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Morocco (+69.8% per year) and Italy (+13.8% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average carob import price amounted to $1,628 per ton, picking up by 5.3% against the previous year. Overall, the import price saw a strong increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 50% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the maximum in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($14,440 per ton), while Algeria ($274 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Switzerland (+26.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Carob

In 2022, approx. 61K tons of carob were exported worldwide; standing approx. at the year before. In general, exports saw a strong expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when exports increased by 66%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 83K tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, carob exports shrank dramatically to $199M in 2022. Overall, exports posted a significant increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when exports increased by 166%. The global exports peaked at $269M in 2021, and then dropped remarkably in the following year.

Exports By Country

Spain was the main exporting country with an export of about 22K tons, which amounted to 36% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Portugal (12K tons), Morocco (7.8K tons), Algeria (4.4K tons), Libya (4K tons) and Turkey (2.8K tons), together making up a 50% share of total exports. Italy (1.6K tons) held a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Turkey (with a CAGR of +12.5%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Morocco ($161M) remains the largest carob supplier worldwide, comprising 81% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Spain ($10M), with a 5.1% share of global exports. It was followed by Algeria, with a 3.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Morocco stood at +25.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Spain (+10.7% per year) and Algeria (+19.4% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average carob export price stood at $3,246 per ton in 2022, which is down by -26.7% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, showed significant growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 112%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $4,430 per ton, and then fell markedly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Morocco ($20,584 per ton), while Portugal ($340 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Morocco (+44.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform