Base Metal Padlock Market

The article discusses the projected growth of the global base metal padlock market from 2022 to 2030, with an expected CAGR of +2.4% in volume and +3.5% in value terms. Consumption, production, imports, and exports trends are analyzed, highlighting key countries such as the United States, China, and India. Insights on per capita consumption, import prices, and export prices are also provided, showcasing notable growth rates and trends in the industry.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for base metal padlocks worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 273K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $2.4B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Base Metal Padlocks

In 2022, global base metal padlock consumption dropped to 227K tons, declining by -5.1% on the previous year's figure. Overall, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 5.3% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at 251K tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global base metal padlock market revenue expanded remarkably to $1.8B in 2022, with an increase of 5.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 8.7%. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were the United States (23K tons), China (18K tons) and India (13K tons), together accounting for 24% of global consumption. Russia, Kenya, Turkey, Indonesia, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, Mexico, Bangladesh, South Africa and France lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 26%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Turkey (with a CAGR of +14.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($339M) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by India ($121M). It was followed by Brazil.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in the United States stood at +5.4%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: India (+1.1% per year) and Brazil (-3.3% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of base metal padlock per capita consumption was registered in the United Arab Emirates (516 kg per 1000 persons), followed by Kenya (125 kg per 1000 persons), Turkey (82 kg per 1000 persons) and South Africa (75 kg per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of base metal padlock was estimated at 29 kg per 1000 persons.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the base metal padlock per capita consumption in the United Arab Emirates was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Kenya (+1.5% per year) and Turkey (+12.6% per year).

Production

World Production of Base Metal Padlocks

In 2022, global production of base metal padlocks declined modestly to 248K tons, leveling off at the year before. Over the period under review, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 14%. Global production peaked at 260K tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, base metal padlock production stood at $1.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $1.9B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

China (188K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of base metal padlock production, accounting for 76% of total volume. Moreover, base metal padlock production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (17K tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Turkey (5.7K tons), with a 2.3% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China was relatively modest. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+3.0% per year) and Turkey (+30.3% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Base Metal Padlocks

Global base metal padlock imports reached 177K tons in 2022, growing by 4.4% on the previous year. Overall, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 6.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at 185K tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, base metal padlock imports reached $1.4B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 16% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (21K tons), distantly followed by Kenya (7K tons), Indonesia (6.4K tons), the United Arab Emirates (5.6K tons), South Africa (5.1K tons), France (4.9K tons), Mexico (4.8K tons), Bangladesh (4.7K tons), Russia (3.4K tons), Colombia (3.3K tons), the UK (3.2K tons), Tanzania (3K tons) and Canada (2.9K tons) represented the major importers of base metal padlocks, together creating 43% of total imports. The following importers - Kenya (7K tons), Indonesia (6.4K tons), the United Arab Emirates (5.6K tons), South Africa (5.1K tons), France (4.9K tons), Mexico (4.8K tons), Bangladesh (4.7K tons), Russia (3.4K tons), Colombia (3.3K tons), the UK (3.2K tons), Tanzania (3K tons) and Canada (2.9K tons) - together made up 31% of total imports.

The United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports of base metal padlocks. At the same time, Tanzania (+9.3%), South Africa (+5.0%), Bangladesh (+4.6%), Kenya (+3.8%), Indonesia (+2.0%), France (+1.9%) and the United Arab Emirates (+1.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Tanzania emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +9.3% from 2012-2022. By contrast, the UK (-1.6%), Colombia (-3.7%), Canada (-3.8%), Mexico (-4.6%) and Russia (-5.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Mexico (-1.6 p.p.) significantly weakened its position in terms of the global imports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($324M) constitutes the largest market for imported base metal padlocks worldwide, comprising 23% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Mexico ($76M), with a 5.5% share of global imports. It was followed by France, with a 4.6% share.

In the United States, base metal padlock imports increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Mexico (-1.3% per year) and France (+4.4% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average base metal padlock import price amounted to $7,840 per ton, surging by 6.6% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.1%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 9.2%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($15,710 per ton), while Tanzania ($949 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Bangladesh (+4.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Base Metal Padlocks

In 2022, approx. 198K tons of base metal padlocks were exported worldwide; picking up by 11% on 2021. In general, exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 14% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, base metal padlock exports reached $1.5B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

China dominates exports structure, accounting for 169K tons, which was near 86% of total exports in 2022. The following exporters - India (6.2K tons) and Mexico (5.5K tons) - each finished at a 5.9% share of total exports.

Exports from China increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, India (+29.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, India emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +29.3% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Mexico (-5.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. China (+2.9 p.p.) and India (+2.9 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Mexico saw its share reduced by -2.5% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, China ($952M) remains the largest base metal padlock supplier worldwide, comprising 64% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Mexico ($166M), with an 11% share of global exports.

In China, base metal padlock exports increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Mexico (-1.2% per year) and India (+24.4% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average base metal padlock export price stood at $7,550 per ton in 2022, growing by 3% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.0%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the average export price increased by 12%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($30,476 per ton), while India ($1,945 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+4.6%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform