Global Walnut Market to Grow at CAGR of 2.6% Through 2030, Reaching $13.7B in Value

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Driven by increasing demand for walnuts worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.6% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.5M tons by the end of 2030. In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.8% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $13.7B (in in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030. After four years of growth, consumption of walnuts decreased by -5.7% to 3.7M tons in 2023. The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were China, the United States, and Iran. Global production of walnuts also saw a decrease in 2023 after four years of growth. Global imports and exports of walnuts showed significant expansion and contraction, respectively, in 2023.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for walnuts worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.6% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.5M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.8% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $13.7B (in in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Walnuts

After four years of growth, consumption of walnuts decreased by -5.7% to 3.7M tons in 2023. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at 4M tons in 2022, and then reduced in the following year.

The global walnut market value declined modestly to $9.9B in 2023, with a decrease of -4.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level at $11.1B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2023, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were China (1.1M tons), the United States (596K tons) and Iran (400K tons), together accounting for 56% of global consumption. Turkey, Mexico, Burkina Faso, Ukraine and India lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +9.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($3B), the United States ($1.9B) and Turkey ($1.1B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2023, with a combined 61% share of the global market. Mexico, Iran, Burkina Faso, India and Ukraine lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 17%.

Mexico, with a CAGR of +4.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of walnut per capita consumption in 2023 were Burkina Faso (5.8 kg per person), Iran (4.6 kg per person) and Turkey (4.5 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +8.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Walnuts

In 2023, production of walnuts decreased by -4.8% to 3.7M tons for the first time since 2018, thus ending a four-year rising trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 15%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume at 3.9M tons in 2022, and then shrank slightly in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a tangible increase of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, walnut production amounted to $8.9B in 2023 estimated in export price. In general, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 36%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak level at $13.7B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2023, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were China (1.2M tons), the United States (674K tons) and Iran (370K tons), together accounting for 61% of global production. Turkey, Chile, Mexico, Burkina Faso and Ukraine lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Chile (with a CAGR of +12.6%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

In 2023, the global average yield of walnuts contracted slightly to 3.1 tons per ha, therefore, remained relatively stable against 2022 figures. Overall, the yield, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the yield increased by 4.3% against the previous year. The global yield peaked at 3.2 tons per ha in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2023, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Harvested Area

In 2023, approx. 1.2M ha of walnuts were harvested worldwide; waning by -4.1% on 2022. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the harvested area increased by 9.8% against the previous year. The global harvested area peaked at 1.3M ha in 2022, and then reduced in the following year.

Imports

World Imports of Walnuts

In 2023, global imports of walnuts expanded markedly to 457K tons, surging by 8.1% on 2022. Overall, imports showed a strong expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when imports increased by 45%. Global imports peaked in 2023 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, walnut imports reduced to $926M in 2023. Over the period under review, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 30%. Global imports peaked at $1.1B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the three major importers of walnuts, namely Turkey, India and the United Arab Emirates, represented more than third of total import. Italy (32K tons) took a 7% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Iran (7%), Kyrgyzstan (6.4%) and Morocco (5.3%). Iraq (16K tons), Mexico (16K tons), Russia (15K tons), Germany (11K tons), Spain (9.9K tons) and Vietnam (9.1K tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Kyrgyzstan (with a CAGR of +221.6%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United Arab Emirates ($172M), Turkey ($132M) and Iran ($82M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2023, together accounting for 42% of global imports. India, Italy, Morocco, Mexico, Iraq, Germany, Vietnam, Spain, Kyrgyzstan and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 44%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Kyrgyzstan, with a CAGR of +164.8%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average walnut import price amounted to $2,024 per ton, which is down by -20.8% against the previous year. In general, the import price showed a abrupt downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 an increase of 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure at $4,362 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2023, import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($3,406 per ton), while Kyrgyzstan ($697 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+1.2%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Walnuts

In 2023, global walnut exports skyrocketed to 463K tons, picking up by 19% against 2022 figures. In general, total exports indicated a perceptible expansion from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when exports increased by 47% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 489K tons. From 2020 to 2023, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, walnut exports declined to $1.1B in 2023. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when exports increased by 26%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $1.4B. From 2020 to 2023, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

In 2023, China (152K tons), Chile (108K tons) and the United States (77K tons) was the key exporter of walnuts in the world, constituting 73% of total export. It was distantly followed by Turkey (27K tons) and France (25K tons), together generating an 11% share of total exports. Mexico (20K tons) and Kyrgyzstan (15K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +102.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($300M), China ($277M) and Chile ($247M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2023, with a combined 76% share of global exports.

China, with a CAGR of +85.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average walnut export price stood at $2,328 per ton in 2023, shrinking by -17.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price continues to indicate a drastic downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the average export price increased by 13% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $4,365 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2023, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($3,894 per ton), while Kyrgyzstan ($750 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+0.8%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform